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\begin{document}

\title{Greater climate sensitivity implied by anvil cloud thinning

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\author[1]{Adam B Sokol}%
\author[2]{Casey J Wall}%
\author[1]{Dennis L Hartmann}%
\affil[1]{Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington}%
\affil[2]{Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo}%


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  \date{May 23, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
High clouds produced by tropical convection are expected to shrink in
area as climate warms, and the radiative feedback associated with this
change has long been the subject of controversy. In a recent assessment
of climate sensitivity, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
estimated that the feedback is significantly negative, albeit with
substantial uncertainty. Here we show that such a negative feedback is
not supported by an ensemble of high-resolution atmospheric models.
Rather, the models suggest that changes in cloud area and opacity act as
a modest positive feedback. The positive opacity component arises from
the disproportionate reduction in the area of thick, climate-cooling
clouds relative to thin, climate-warming clouds. This suggests that
thick cloud area is tightly coupled to the rate of convective
overturning-which is expected to slow with warming-whereas thin cloud
area is influenced by other, less-certain processes. The cloud response
is examined from a novel perspective that treats high clouds as part of
an optical continuum rather than entities with fixed opacity. The
positive feedback differs significantly from previous estimates and
leads to a 0.3 * C increase in climate sensitivity relative to a
previous community assessment.%
\end{abstract}%



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