Climate adaptation for a natural atoll island in the Maldives -
predicting the long-term morphological response of coral islands to sea
level rise and the effect of hazard mitigation strategies
Abstract
Coral atoll islands, common in tropical and subtropical oceans, consist
of low-lying accumulations of carbonate sediment produced by fringing
coral reef systems and are of great socio-economic and ecological
importance. Previous studies have predicted that many coral atoll
islands will become uninhabitable before the end of this century due to
sea level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding. However, the
assumption that such islands are morphologically static, and will
therefore ‘drown’ as sea levels rise, has been challenged by
observations and modelling that show the potential for overwashing and
sediment deposition to maintain island freeboard. However, for
sustainable habitation, reliable predictions of island adjustment,
flooding frequency and the influence of adaptation measures are
required. Here, we illustrate the effect of various adaptation measures
on the morphological response of an atoll island to future sea level
rise using process-based model simulations. We found that the assumption
of a static island morphology leads to a significant increase in the
predicted frequency of future island flooding compared to
morphodynamically active islands, and demonstrate that natural
morphological adjustment is a viable mechanism to increase island
freeboard. Reef adaptation measures were shown to modify the inshore
wave energy, influencing the equilibrium island crest height and
therefore the long-term morphological response of the island, while
beach restoration mainly delays the island’s response. If embraced and
implemented by local communities, allowing for natural island dynamics
and implementing well-designed adaptation measures could potentially
extend the habitability of atoll islands well beyond current
projections.