Evaluating the direct and indirect effect of climate and human
activities on long-term vegetation greening in China
Abstract
Understanding the long-term characteristics of vegetation variations and
their relationship to climate and human activities is important for
regional sustainable development and ecological construction. Herein,
the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was selected as a
proxy, related method and algorithm were applied to obtain the nonlinear
characteristics of long-term interannual NDVI in China. Partial least
squares-structural equation modeling was employed to separate the
effects of climate and human activities on vegetation greening. Further,
geographically weighted regression was applied to explore the spatial
correlations among comprehensive forces and vegetation growth and
achieve the partitioning of driving forces. The results suggested that
vegetation growth in China experienced an abrupt change in 1995, there
was obvious vegetation browning during 1990–1995, and noticeable
vegetation recovery from 1996 to 2018. Climate was a directly main
driving force for vegetation increasing in China. The positive effect of
climate was the most obvious in south China, with a path coefficient of
0.348. However, climate was significantly negative to vegetation growth
in northwest China (-0.049). Improving socio-economic conditions had a
slightly negative impact on vegetation greening, while ecological policy
played a direct and obvious role in promoting vegetation growth,
especially in northwest China, with a path coefficient of 0.295.
Furthermore, ecological policy would directly affect the microclimate in
northwest China, strengthen the restraint effect of water resources on
vegetation, and then indirectly hinder vegetation increasing. Therefore,
the implementation of ecological policies should be adjusted according
to regional climatic conditions, to avoid the traditional way of
increasing forest (grassland) area, and reduce the contradiction between
water, soil and vegetation. Actually, the indirect effect of
socio-economic conditions and ecological policy on vegetation growth was
far greater than its direct impact in some cases; therefore, research
attention should be paid to the indirect effects of driving forces on
vegetation growth