Under what conditions do the global warming responses of drought indices
and land-surface models agree?
Abstract
The regional to global responses of the Standardized
Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index,
and Aridity Index to future global warming tend to be much more
pervasively and strongly negative than the responses of comprehensive
land model runoff and bulk soil-moisture outputs to the same warming. We
term these systematic differences “index-impact gaps.” Some studies
have assumed that these gaps arise because land-surface models include
water-saving CO2-plant effects that the dryness indices do not, but
recently published work makes clear that the gaps largely persist even
in model simulations in which these effects are switched off. Thus, the
main reason(s) for the index-impact gaps are still unclear, making it
difficult to trust either the common dryness indices or the
comprehensive land-surface models under climate change. In this study,
we are investigating several postulated causes of these index-impact
gaps using sensitivity experiments with the state-of-the-art Community
Land Model version 5.0. In addition to CO2-plant effects, we are testing
the roles of stomatal closure driven by high vapor-pressure deficits,
short-term runoff enhancement due to sharper concentration of rain in
time with warming, and annual-scale runoff enhancement due to changes in
the seasonality of precipitation and/or infiltration with warming. If
CLM5.0’s runoff and bulk soil-moisture responses start to agree with the
dryness-index responses much more after eliminating these pathways, it
will imply that the dryness indices are in fact a useful theoretical
baseline for understanding the comprehensive model responses. However,
if the index-impact gaps still remain wide, it will imply either that
dryness-index responses are fundamentally different from runoff and
soil-moisture responses to climate change, or else that CLM5.0’s
evapotranspiration is not sensitive enough to rising temperatures.
Further experiments will be required in that case.