Abstract
Five of California’s ten largest wildfires occurred in 2020, with the
largest complex shattering the previous record by more than 100 %. The
year follows a decade containing extraordinary fire activity. Trend
investigations focused on changes in human activities and atmospheric
thermodynamics, while the impacts of changing atmospheric dynamics are
largely unknown. Here we identify extreme weather types (XWTs)
associated with historically large daily burned areas in eight
Californian regions. These XWTs characterize dominant fire weather
regimes varying in fire behavior types (plume-driven vs. wind-driven
fires) and seasonality. 2020’s exceptional fires partly occurred during
previously unrecognized XWTs, whose characteristics and recurrence
intervals were largely unknown. Most of the strongly large-scale forced
XWTs such as Santa Ana and Diablo events increased in frequency during
the 20th century particularly in the Sand Diego and Bay Area region.
These changes are likely not anthropogenically caused and predominantly
due to climate internal variability. However, raising greenhouse gas
concentrations significantly decrease thermal low XWTs in southern and
increase them in central California. These XWTs occur during the hottest
time in the year and will alter fire risk in the summer season.