Grid Spacing Sensitivity of Simulated Convective Drafts in Tropical and
Mid-Latitude Mesoscale Convective Systems
Abstract
Organized deep convection plays a critical role in the global water
cycle and drives extreme precipitation events in tropical and
mid-latitude regions. However, simulating deep convection remains
challenging for modern weather forecasts and climate models due to the
complex interactions of processes from microscales to mesoscales. Recent
models with kilometer-scale (km-scale) horizontal grid spacings (Δx)
offer notable improvements in simulating deep convection compared to
coarser-resolution models. Still, deficiencies in representing key
physical processes, such as entrainment, lead to systematic biases.
Additionally, evaluating model outputs using process-oriented
observational data remains difficult. In this study, we present an
ensemble of MCS simulations with Δx spanning the deep convective grey
zone (Δx from 12 km to 125 m) in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S.
and the Amazon Basin. Comparing these simulations with Atmospheric
Radiation Measurement (ARM) wind profiler observations, we find greater
Δx sensitivity in the Amazon Basin compared to the Great Plains.
Convective drafts converge structurally at sub-kilometer scales, but
some discrepancies, such as too-deep up- and downdrafts and too-weak
peak downdrafts in both regions or too-strong updrafts in Amazonian
storms remain. Overall, we observe higher Δx sensitivity in the tropics,
including an artificial buildup in vertical velocities at five times the
Δx, suggesting a need for Δx≤250 m. Nevertheless, bulk convergence -
agreement of storm average statistics - is achievable with km-scale
simulations within a ±10 % error margin, with Δx=1 km providing a good
balance between accuracy and computational cost.