When analysing individual seasons (months) with the Mann-Kendall trend
test, there were no significant differences in the monthly trends, but
there were significant shifts (p<0.001) in the central trend,
corresponding to April 2018 (k=16) for diameter, mean number of
neighbours, and shortest path according to Pettit’s test (Fig. 5).
Three parishes shared the highest value of in-degree and out-degree
centrality (Santo Domingo, Saquisili and Guaranda). The 21 most
influential parishes (top 2% degree) accounted for 53.73% of the
movements in Ecuador. The parishes with the highest balance (Marcabeli,
Balsas, San Andres and Puerto Limon) accounted for -47.44% (SI 3). It
is possible to visualise the parishes of Marcabeli and Balsas in the
southwestern part of the country near the Peru border with a balance of
-8,300 (Fig. 6A). Parishes without pig movements in gray are especially
visible in 18 parishes concentrated in the Amazon rainforest (east on
map), and 77 are distributed in the other regions of the country. The
degree on a colour scale showed the highest value in Santo Domingo
parish at the western centre of the country. The distribution of cases
of CSF all around the country represents the endemic situation well;
note that the higher degree concentration is also related to high
concentration of cases, especially in the Andean zone (strip from north
to south) Fig. 6B.
Figure 6. Map representing the study area showing the degree and cases
of CSF in Ecuador (2017–2019). The gray polygonal lines are the
boundaries of the parishes, the darker gray the boundaries of provinces.
(A) Representing the parish balance between the ingoing and outgoing
movements. (B) Representing the aggregated parish degree and the red
dots representing the location of CSF outbreaks. The network of parishes
contains 1,032 vertices (parishes) and 751,003 edges (movements).
Parishes without movements as NA.