Abstract
The notion that adaptive evolution markedly shapes species distribution
probabilities has pushed for genomics-informed species distribution
models (gSDMs). These models account for intraspecific variation and
gene flow to enhance the accuracy of species range projections. Yet,
gSDMs remain encumbered by limitations stemming from substantial
sequencing costs and from a global change mindset skewed towards climate
warming, likely resulting in an overly narrow view on genomic
vulnerability. Current developments in sequencing methodologies are
paving the way for gSDMs that transcend spatial and temporal
constraints. Specifically, the ability to quantify genome-wide standing
genetic variation across species’ ranges unlocks bottom-up gSDM, where
range projections are shaped by the intrinsic ability of populations to
evolve in response to a wide array of environmental stressors. By
integrating range-wide variation in dispersal, drift, demographic
history and overall adaptive potential, bottom-up gSDMs promise greater
realism and robustness in addressing the full spectrum of environmental
threats.