Assuming stationarity compromises understanding of the dynamics and
management of open marine populations
Abstract
Understanding connectivity of marine species is crucial for their
management. This connectivity, however, is difficult to quantify;
propagules of marine species are typically small, numerous, and can
travel large distances. Consequently, oceanographic models are often
used to simulate larval dispersal. To avoid high computational costs,
these models typically use, pooled or cross-sectional data and fixed
biological parameters. Here we explore how temporal and spatial
variation in current velocities, and pelagic larval duration and
buoyancy can alter patterns of marine connectivity of Crown-of-Thorns
starfish on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. Our results reveal highly
variable reef connectivity in space and time mediated by all three
factors. No individual reef acted consistently as a population source or
sink. It is, therefore, important to consider many factors concurrently
when estimating connectivity for understanding these population
dynamics, especially where such estimates are relied on for
evidence-based decision making.