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Predicting the distribution of plant associations under climate change: A case study on Larix gmelinii in China
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  • Chen Chen,
  • Xijuan Zhang,
  • Jizhong Wan,
  • Feifei Gao,
  • Shusheng Yuan,
  • Tiantian Sun,
  • Zhendong Ni,
  • Jinghua Yu
Chen Chen
Institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of Sciences

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Xijuan Zhang
Institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Jizhong Wan
Qinghai University State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture
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Feifei Gao
Institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Shusheng Yuan
Institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Tiantian Sun
Institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Zhendong Ni
Institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Jinghua Yu
Institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Abstract

Association is the basic unit of plant community classification. Exploring the distribution of plant associations can help improve the understanding of biodiversity conservation. Different associations depend on different habitats. Studying the association level is significant for ecological restoration, regional ecological protection, regulating the ecological balance, and maintaining biodiversity. However, previous studies have focused only on the suitable distribution areas of species and not on the distribution of plant associations. Larix gmelinii is a sensitive and abundant species spread in the southern margin of Eurasian boreal forests, and its distribution is closely related to permafrost. In this study, 420 original plots of L. gmelinii forests were investigated. We used Maxent model and ArcGIS software to project the potential geographical distribution of L. gmelinii associations in the future (by 2050 and 2070) according to the climate scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. The causes for the changes in spatial distribution were analyzed using multinomial logistic regression analysis. The results revealed that temperature is the most important factor affecting the distribution of L. gmelinii forests and most of its associations under different climate scenarios. Further, the suitable areas for each association type are shrinking by varying degrees, especially due to habitat loss at high altitudes in special terrains. For different L. gmelinii associations, management measures should also be different based on the different site conditions, composition structure, growth, development, and renewal succession trends. Furthermore, subsequent research should consider data on biological factors to obtain more accurate prediction results.
18 Mar 2022Submitted to Ecology and Evolution
22 Mar 2022Submission Checks Completed
22 Mar 2022Assigned to Editor
28 Mar 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
19 Apr 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
28 Apr 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
03 Jul 20221st Revision Received
04 Jul 2022Submission Checks Completed
04 Jul 2022Assigned to Editor
04 Jul 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
05 Jul 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
28 Jul 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
19 Aug 20222nd Revision Received
20 Aug 2022Assigned to Editor
20 Aug 2022Submission Checks Completed
20 Aug 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
07 Sep 2022Editorial Decision: Accept
Oct 2022Published in Ecology and Evolution volume 12 issue 10. 10.1002/ece3.9374