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Preterm births in Italy and putative risk factors before, during and after COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based study
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  • Franca Rusconi,
  • Martina Pacifici,
  • Anna Maria Nannavecchia,
  • Sonia Brescianini,
  • Teresa Spadea,
  • Pietro Buono,
  • Michele Gobbato,
  • Olivia Leoni,
  • Eva Papa,
  • Enrica Perrone,
  • Riccardo Pertile,
  • Arianna Polo,
  • Monia Puglia,
  • Raffaella Rusciani,
  • Elisa Eleonora Tavormina,
  • Laura Visonà Dalla Pozza,
  • Luigi Gagliardi
Franca Rusconi
Azienda USL Toscana nord ovest

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Martina Pacifici
Agenzia Regionale di Sanita della Toscana
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Anna Maria Nannavecchia
Regione Puglia
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Sonia Brescianini
Istituto Superiore di Sanita
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Teresa Spadea
ASL TO3
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Pietro Buono
Sistema Sanitario Regionale Campania
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Michele Gobbato
Societa Italiana per la Qualita dell'Assistenza Sanitaria Sezione Friuli Venezia Giulia
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Olivia Leoni
Regione Lombardia Direzione Generale Welfare
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Eva Papa
Provincia autonoma di Bolzano - Alto Adige Salute e benessere
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Enrica Perrone
Servizio Sanitario Regionale Emilia-Romagna
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Riccardo Pertile
Provincia Autonoma di Trento
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Arianna Polo
Salute Lazio Sistema Sanitario Regionale
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Monia Puglia
Agenzia Regionale di Sanita della Toscana
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Raffaella Rusciani
ASL TO3
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Elisa Eleonora Tavormina
Istituto di Bioscienze e Biorisorse Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Sezione di Palermo
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Laura Visonà Dalla Pozza
Sistema Epidemiologico Regionale della Regione del Veneto
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Luigi Gagliardi
Azienda USL Toscana nord ovest
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Abstract

Objective: To investigate the trend in preterm birth (PTB) rates and the influence of several potential maternal risk factors on PTB in Italy from January 2018 to December 2022, before and after COVID-19 pandemic. Design: Population-based study covering 86.11% of all Italian births. Methods: We conducted an interrupted time series analysis to examine the PTB trend. Using Poisson regressions, we assessed the associations (risk ratio, RR) of potential risk factors with PTB and calculated their population impact fractions (PIFs). Main outcome measures: Primary outcomes included the temporal trends of PTB rates before and after the pandemic, and the change during the pandemic. Secondary outcomes involved the associations of potential risk factors with PTB rates, and PIFs. Results: We observed a monthly decrease in PTB rate until July 2020 [-0.2% (95% CI: -0.3; -0.1)], followed by an interruption with an abrupt drop of -5% in July 2020 (95% CI: -7.3; -2.7). From August 2020 until December 2022 the trend remained flat (-0.02%, 95% CI: -0.5; 0.5). Among studied risk factors, low maternal education, unemployment and foreign nationality were associated with PTB [RR: 1.14 (95% CI: 1.04;1.24), 1.08 (1.05;1.12), and 1.17 (1.14;1.21), respectively], and showed a decreasing trend after pandemics; the impact (PIFs) on PTB rates was modest with a decrease between 2.4 and 4.2‰ PTB. Conclusions: We confirmed a decrease in PTB rates before and during the pandemic described also in other European countries. In Italy, post-pandemic PTB trend remained flat. Socioeconomic risk factors for PTB only marginally explained this pattern. Tweetable abstract In Italy, the decrease in preterm births before and during COVID-19 stopped after the pandemic; the impact of socio-economic disparities was minimal