Predicting the potential distribution of pine wilt disease in China
under climate change
Abstract
Pine wilt disease (PWD) cause by pine wood nematodes (PWN,
Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) is an epidemic forest disease that seriously
threatens the world’s forest resources and human ecological environment.
Predicting the potential geographical distribution of PWD in China under
climate change and studying the impact of climate change on the
distribution of PWD using the MaxEnt model can provide a basis for high
- efficiency quarantine, supervision, and timely prevention and control.
In our study, the ENMeval data package was used to optimize the
parameter setting of the MaxEnt model based on 647 geographical
distribution locations of PWD and seven climate factors, the potential
distribution areas of PWD under current and future climate conditions
(2050s, 2070s) were simulated and predicted, and the dominant
environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of PWD
were analyzed. The results showed that the value of AICc of the Akaike
information criterion was 0, and the prediction accuracy was good when
the feature combination (FC) was LQHPT and the regularization multiplier
(RM) was 0.5. The results showed that the main climate factors affecting
the distribution of PWD were temperature (max temperature of warmest
month (bio5), mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9), rainfall
(coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality (bio14) and
precipitation of wettest quarter (bio16). The prediction results of the
MaxEnt model showed that the area of the total suitable habitat and
highly suitable habitat will expand significantly in 2050 and 2070, and
the potential distribution of PWD will tend to spread to high latitude
and altitude.