Predicting the Potential Distribution of Endangered and Rare Satyrium
Species in China under Climate Change
Abstract
Satyrium is an endangered and rare genus of plant that has various
pharmacodynamic functions. The prediction of potentially suitable
habitat of Satyrium species and to analyze their changes, the model
MaxEnt niche was applied; furthermore, the receiver operating
characteristic curve was applied to analyze accuracy. The results
provided an available reference for implementation of long-term
conservation and management approaches for the species. Under the
current climatic conditions, the area of the total suitable habitat for
Satyrium ciliatum (S. ciliatum) in China is 32.51 × 104 km2, the total
suitable habitat area for Satyrium nepalense (S. nepalense) in China is
61.76 × 104 km2, and the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium
yunnanense (S. yunnanense) in China is 89.73 × 104 km2. The potential
suitable habitat of Satyrium is mainly distributed in Southwest China.
The major environmental changes influencing the geographical
distribution of S. ciliatum were temperature seasonality (Bio4),
isothermality (Bio3), and mean temperature of coldest quarter (Bio11).
The geographical distribution of S. nepalense was mainly affected by
environmental variables like temperature seasonality (Bio4), isothermal
environment (Bio3), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19);
and the geographical distribution of the species S. yunnanense were
mainly affected by the environmental variables such as temperature
seasonality (Bio4), isothermality (Bio3) and lower temperature of the
coldest month (Bio6). The distribution range of Satyrium’s extended with
global warming increased, in both situations’ emissions of greenhouse
gases with lower concentration (SSP1-2.6) and the emission of greenhouse
gases with higher concentration (SSP5-8.5). According to the study, the
distribution of suitable habitat would shift with change to higher
elevated areas in the coming time.