Abstract
COVID-19 is a respiratory illness caused by an RNA virus prone to
mutations. In December 2020, variants with different characteristics
that could affect transmissibility emerged around the world. To address
this new dynamic of the disease, we formulate and analyze a mathematical
model of a two-strain COVID- 19 transmission dynamics with strain 1
vaccination. The model is theoretically analyzed and sufficient
conditions for the stability of its equilibria are derived. In addition
to the disease-free and endemic equilibria, the model also has
single-strain 1 and strain 2 endemic equilibria. Using the center
manifold theory, it is shown that the model does not exhibit the
phenomenon of backward bifurcation, and global stability of the model
equilibria when the basic reproduction number R 0 is either less or
greater than unity as the case maybe are proved using various
approaches. Simulations to support the model theoretical results are
provided. We calculate the basic reproductive number for both strains R
1 and R 2 independently. Results indicate that - both strains will
persist when R 1 > 1 and R 2 > 1 - Stain 2
could establish itself as the dominant strain if R 1 < 1 and R
2 > 1, or when R 2 is at least two times greater than R 1 .
However, with the current knowledge of the epidemiology of the COVID-19
pandemic and the availability of treatment and an effective vaccine
against strain 1, it is expected that eventually, strain 2 will likely
be eradicated in the population due to de novo herd immunity provided
the threshold parameter R 2 is controlled to remain below unity.