Estimation of breeding population size using DNA-based pedigree
reconstruction in brown bears
Abstract
Robust estimates of demographic parameters are critical for effective
wildlife conservation and management, but are difficult to obtain for
elusive species. We estimated the breeding and adult population sizes,
as well as the minimum population size, in a high-density brown bear
population on the Shiretoko Peninsula, in Hokkaido, Japan, using
DNA-based pedigree reconstruction. A total of 1,288 individuals,
collected in and around the Shiretoko Peninsula between 1998 and 2020,
were genotyped at 21 microsatellite loci. Among them, 499 individuals
were identified by intensive genetic sampling conducted in two
consecutive years (2019 and 2020) mainly by noninvasive methods (e.g.,
hair and fecal DNA). Among them, both parents were assigned for 330
bears, and either maternity or paternity was assigned to 47 and 76
individuals, respectively. The subsequent pedigree reconstruction
indicated a range of breeding and adult (≥4 years old) population sizes:
128–173 for female breeders and 66–91 male breeders, and 155–200 for
female adults and 84–109 male adults. The minimum population size was
estimated to be 449 (252 females and 197 males) in 2019. Long-term
continuous genetic sampling prior to a short-term intensive survey would
enable parentage to be identified in a population with a high
probability, thus enabling reliable estimates of breeding population
size for elusive species.