Abstract
The hydrology community is engaged in an intense debate regarding the
merits of machine learning (ML) models over traditional models. These
traditional models include both conceptual and process-based
hydrological models (PBHMs). Many in the hydrologic community remain
skeptical about the use of ML models, because they consider these models
“black-box” constructs that do not allow for a direct mapping between
model internals and hydrologic states. In addition, they argue that it
is unclear how to encode a priori hydrological expertise into ML models.
Yet at the same time, ML models now routinely outperform traditional
hydrological models for tasks such as streamflow simulation and
short-range forecasting. Not only that, they are demonstrably better at
generalizing runoff behavior across sites and therefore better at making
predictions in ungauged basins, a long-standing problem in hydrology. In
recent model experiments, we have shown that ML turbulent heat flux
parameterizations embedded in a PBHM outperform the process-based
parameterization in that PBHM. In this case, the PBHM enforced energy
and mass constraints, while the ML parameterization calculated the heat
fluxes. While this approach provides an interesting proof-of-concept and
perhaps acts as a bridge between traditional models and ML models, we
argue that it is time to take a bigger leap than incrementally improving
the existing generation of models. We need to construct a new generation
of hydrologic and land surface models (LSMs) that takes advantage of ML
technologies in which we directly encode the physical concepts and
constraints that we know are important, while being able to flexibly
ingest a wide variety of data sources directly. To be employed as LSMs
in coupled earth system models, they will need to conserve mass and
energy. These new models will take time to develop, but the time to
start is now, since the basic building blocks exist and we know how to
get started. If nothing else, it will advance the debate and undoubtedly
lead to better understanding within the hydrology and land surface
communities regarding the merits and demerits of the competing
approaches. In this presentation, we will discuss some of these early
studies, illustrate how ML models can offer hydrologic insight, and
argue the case for the development of ML-based LSMs.