Relative species abundance and population densities of the past;
developing multi-species occupancy models for fossil data
Abstract
The number of individuals of species within communities varies, but
estimating abundance, given incomplete and biased sampling, is
challenging. Here, we describe a new occupancy model in a hierarchical
Bayesian framework with random effects, where multi-species occupancy
and detection are modeled as a means to estimate relative species
abundance and relative population densities. The modelling framework is
suited for occupancy data for temporal samples of fossil communities
with repeated sampling including multiple species with similar
preservation potential. We demonstrate our modelling framework using a
fossil community of benthic organisms to estimate changing relative
species abundance dynamics and relative population densities of focal
species in 9 (geological) time-intervals over 2.3 million years. We also
explored potential explanatory factors (paleoenvironmental proxies) and
temporal autocorrelation that could provide extra information on
unsampled time-intervals. The modelling framework is applicable across a
wide range of questions on species-level dynamics in (palaeo)ecological
community settings.