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Possible planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under different emissions scenarios
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  • Zhixin Hao,
  • Maowei Wu,
  • Yang Xu,
  • Jingyun Zheng
Zhixin Hao
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences,

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Maowei Wu
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Yang Xu
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
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Jingyun Zheng
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
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Suitable planting areas for winter wheat in north China are expected to shift northwardly due to climate change, however, the increasing extreme events and the deficiency of water supply are threatening the security of planting system. Thus, based on predicted climate data for 2021–2050 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios, as well as historical data from 1961–1990, we use four critical parameters of percentage of extreme minimum temperature occurrence, first day of the overwintering period (FD), sowing date (SD), and precipitation before winter (PBW) to determine the planting boundary of winter wheat. The results show that, the frequency of extreme minimum temperature occurrence is expected to decrease in the North winter wheat area, which will result in a northward movement of the western part of northern boundary by 73, 94, and 114 km on average, as well as FD delays ranging from 6.0 to 10.5 days. Moreover, the agrometeorological conditions in the Huang-Huai winter wheat area are expected to exhibit more pronounced changes than the rest of the studied areas, especially near the southern boundary, which is expected to retreat by approximately 213, 215, and 233 km northwardly. The north boundary is expected to move 90–140 km northward. Therefore, the change in southern and northern boundaries will lead the potential planting areas of the entire North winter wheat area to increase by 10,700 and 28,000 km2 on average in the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios but decrease 38,100 km2 in the SSP1-2.6 scenario.