Predictors of Diffusing Capacity in Children with Sickle Cell Disease: A
Longitudinal Study
Abstract
Rationale: Gas exchange abnormalities in Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) may
represent cardiopulmonary deterioration. Identifying predictors of these
abnormalities in children with SCD (C-SCD) may help us understand
disease progression and develop informed management decisions.
Objectives: To identify pulmonary function tests (PFT) and biomarkers of
systemic disease severity that are associated with and predict abnormal
carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) in C-SCD. Methods: We obtained
PFT data from 51 C-SCD (115 observations) and 22 controls, and
identified predictors of DLCO for further analyses. We formulated a rank
list of DLCO predictors based on machine learning algorithms (XGBoost)
or linear mixed-effect models and compared estimated DLCO to the
measured values. Finally, we evaluated the association between measured
and estimated DLCO and clinical outcomes, including SCD crises,
pulmonary hypertension, and nocturnal hypoxemia. Results: DLCO and
several PFT indices were diminished in C-SCD compared to controls. Both
statistical approaches ranked FVC%, neutrophils(%), and FEV25%-75%
as the top three predictors of DLCO. XGBoost had superior performance
compared to the linear model. Both measured and estimated DLCO
demonstrated significant association with SCD severity indicators. DLCO
estimated by XGBoost was associated with SCD crises (beta=-0.084
[95%CI -0.134, -0.033]) and with TRJV (beta=-0.009 [-0.017,
-0.001]), but not with nocturnal hypoxia (p=0.121). Conclusions: In
this cohort of C-CSD, DLCO was associated with PFT estimates
representing restrictive lung disease (FVC%), airflow obstruction
(FEV25%-75%), and inflammation (neutrophil%). We were able to use
these indices to estimate DLCO, and show association with disease
outcomes, underscoring the prediction models’ clinical relevance.