Potential of the coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system for flood forecasting
in the Ouémé-river basin (Benin, West Africa): an assessment with the
Stochastic Kinetic-Energy Backscatter Scheme
Abstract
Since 2000s, most of West-African countries and particularly Benin have
experienced an increased frequency of extreme flood events. In this
study we focus on the case of the Ouémé-river basin in Benin for the
period 2008-2010. To investigate on how to early warn flood events in
this basin, the coupled atmosphere-hydrology model system WRF-Hydro is
selected. Such a coupled model allows to explore the contribution of
atmospheric components into the flood event, and its ability to simulate
and predict accurate streamflow. The potential of WRF-Hydro in correctly
simulating streamflow in the Ouémé-river basin is assessed by forcing
the model with operational analysis datasets from the ECMWF. Atmospheric
and land surface processes are resolved at a spatial resolution of 5km.
The additional surface and subsurface water flow routing is computed at
a resolution 1:10. Key parameters of the hydrological module of
WRF-Hydro are calibrated offline, and tested online with the coupled
WRF-Hydro. The uncertainty of atmospheric modeling on coupled results is
assessed with the stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS).
WRF-Hydro is able to simulate the discharge in Ouémé river on offline
and fully-coupled modes with a Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) around 0.70
and 076 respectively. In fully-coupled mode the model captures the flood
event that occurred in 2010. A stochastic perturbation ensemble of 10
members for three rain seasons shows that the coupled model performance
in terms of KGE is from 0.14 to 0.79. This ability in realistically
reproducing observed discharge in the Ouémé-river basin demonstrates the
potential of the coupled WRF-Hydro modeling system for future flood
forecasting applications.