The expected rise in major tropical cyclones due to climate change will
increase their associated hazards, including ocean waves which are the
main design parameter for maritime structures. To assess how climate
change will affect tropical cyclone waves in the Gulf of Mexico we use
physics-based synthetic tropical cyclones derived for present and future
climates, overcoming the limitations imposed by insufficiently long
records and inadequate resolution in General Circulation Models. Using
events derived from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
models, we estimate the probability of extreme waves for the present
climate, and global warming under the Representative Concentration
Pathway 8.5 scenario. The results show the importance of non-stationary
wave climates for planning and design of maritime structures to reduce
structure failure probability as we transit into a future climate with
an increased probability of extreme waves.