PLAIN SUMMARY
This
study concerns the comparative changes between the future and natural
hydrological conditions caused by the changing climate in the Jinsha
River Basin (JRB), China. To achieve this objective, (1) firstly, seven
Global Climate Models (GCM) under two Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs) were used to project the future climate variables; (2)
then, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was
employed and verified apt to predict future streamflow; (3) finally, the
joint assessment of the Indicator of Hydrological Alterations (IHA) and
the River Regime Index (RRI) was performed to investigate the potential
variations of hydrological regimes under both interannual and
intraannual scales. The increasing trends of both precipitation, maximum
air temperature, and minimum air temperature can be found. In regard to
the hydrological regimes, the projected runoff will be more centralized
in summer and autumn. Extreme hydrological phenomena would occur more
frequent in the future, and the flow patterns may have noticeable
changes corresponding to the natural river regime. The results would
assist both water managers and decision-makers in implementing the
rational planning of hydraulic structures, as well as other management
policies, to avoid potential risks.
RUNNING HEAD: Future hydrological regime changes