PLAIN SUMMARY
This study concerns the comparative changes between the future and natural hydrological conditions caused by the changing climate in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB), China. To achieve this objective, (1) firstly, seven Global Climate Models (GCM) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to project the future climate variables; (2) then, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was employed and verified apt to predict future streamflow; (3) finally, the joint assessment of the Indicator of Hydrological Alterations (IHA) and the River Regime Index (RRI) was performed to investigate the potential variations of hydrological regimes under both interannual and intraannual scales. The increasing trends of both precipitation, maximum air temperature, and minimum air temperature can be found. In regard to the hydrological regimes, the projected runoff will be more centralized in summer and autumn. Extreme hydrological phenomena would occur more frequent in the future, and the flow patterns may have noticeable changes corresponding to the natural river regime. The results would assist both water managers and decision-makers in implementing the rational planning of hydraulic structures, as well as other management policies, to avoid potential risks.
RUNNING HEAD: Future hydrological regime changes