Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an
operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo
Abstract
An intercomparison of four air quality models is performed in the
tropical megacity of Sao Paulo with the perspective of developing an air
quality forecasting system based on a regional model ensemble. During
three contrasting periods marked by different types of pollution events,
we analyze the concentrations of the main regulated pollutants (Ozone,
CO, SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10) compared to observations of a dense air
quality monitoring network. The modeled concentrations of CO, PM and NOx
are in good agreement with the observations for the temporal variability
and the range of variation. However, the transport of pollutants due to
biomass burning pollution events can strongly affect the air quality in
the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo with increases of CO, PM2.5 and PM10,
and is associated with an important inter-model variability. Our results
show that each model has periods and pollutants for which it has the
best agreement. The observed day-to-day variability of ozone
concentration is well reproduced by the models, as well as the average
diurnal cycle in terms of timing. Overall the performance for ozone of
the median of the regional model ensemble is the best in terms of time
and magnitude because it takes advantage of the capabilities of each
model. Therefore, an ensemble prediction of regional models is promising
for an operational air quality forecasting system for the megacity of
Sao Paulo.