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Detecting, attributing, and projecting global marine ecosystem and fisheries change: FishMIP 2.0
  • +40
  • Julia L. Blanchard,
  • Camilla Novaglio,
  • Olivier Maury,
  • Cheryl Shannon Harrison,
  • Colleen M Petrik,
  • L. Denisse Fierro Arcos,
  • Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,
  • Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,
  • Tyler Eddy,
  • Ryan Heneghan,
  • Kelsey E Roberts,
  • Jacob Schewe,
  • Daniele Bianchi,
  • Jerome Guiet,
  • Daniel van Denderen,
  • Juliano Palacios-Abrantes,
  • Xiao Liu,
  • Charles A. A Stock,
  • Yannick Rousseau,
  • Matthias Büchner,
  • Ezekiel Adekoya,
  • William Cheung,
  • Villy Christensen,
  • Marta Coll,
  • Leonardo Capitani,
  • Samik Datta,
  • Beth Fulton,
  • Alba Fuster,
  • Victoria Garza,
  • Matthieu Lengaigne,
  • Max lindmark,
  • Kieran Murphy,
  • Jazel Ouled-Cheikh,
  • Sowdamini P. Prasad,
  • Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos,
  • Jonathan Charles Reum,
  • Nina Rynne,
  • Kim Scherrer,
  • Yunne-Jai Shin,
  • Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek,
  • Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats,
  • Yan-Lun Wu,
  • Derek Tittensor
Julia L. Blanchard
University of Tasmania

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Camilla Novaglio
University of Tasmania
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Olivier Maury
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
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Cheryl Shannon Harrison
Louisiana State University
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Colleen M Petrik
UC San Diego
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L. Denisse Fierro Arcos
The University of Tasmania
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Kelly Ortega-Cisneros
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
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Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland
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Tyler Eddy
Unknown
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Ryan Heneghan
Unknown
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Kelsey E Roberts
Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA
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Jacob Schewe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Daniele Bianchi
University of California Los Angeles
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Jerome Guiet
UCLA
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Daniel van Denderen
Technical University of Denmark
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Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia
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Xiao Liu
Princeton University
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Charles A. A Stock
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
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Yannick Rousseau
The University of Tasmania
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Matthias Büchner
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Ezekiel Adekoya
The University of Tasmania
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William Cheung
University of British Columbia
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Villy Christensen
UBC Insitute of the Oceans and Fisheries
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Marta Coll
Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
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Leonardo Capitani
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
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Samik Datta
NIWA
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Beth Fulton
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
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Alba Fuster
Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC)
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Victoria Garza
Louisiana State University
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Matthieu Lengaigne
MARBEC
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Max lindmark
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
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Kieran Murphy
The University of Tasmania
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Jazel Ouled-Cheikh
Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC)
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Sowdamini P. Prasad
The University of Tasmania
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Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
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Jonathan Charles Reum
NOAA Fisheries
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Nina Rynne
Queensland University of Technology
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Kim Scherrer
Autonomous University of Barcelona
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Yunne-Jai Shin
IRD/IFREMER
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Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek
Ecopath International Initiative (EII)
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Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats
NOAA
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Yan-Lun Wu
The University of Tasmania
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Derek Tittensor
Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
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Abstract

There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long-term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio-temporal scales relevant to the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world’s fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact projections have mostly ignored fishing activity due to a lack of standardized historical and scenario-based human activity forcing and uneven capabilities to dynamically model fisheries across the FishMIP community. This, in addition to underrepresentation of coastal processes, has limited the ability to evaluate the FishMIP ensemble’s ability to adequately capture past states - a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed two parallel simulation experiments (FishMIP 2.0) on: 1) model evaluation and detection of past changes and 2) future scenarios and projections. Key advances include historical climate forcing, that captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized fishing forcing to systematically test fishing effects across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a key step towards a detection and attribution framework for marine ecosystem change at regional and global scales, and towards enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections.
19 Jan 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
22 Jan 2024Published in ESS Open Archive