Detecting, attributing, and projecting global marine ecosystem and
fisheries change: FishMIP 2.0
Abstract
There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and
project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they
provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model
Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model
ensembles for projecting long-term impacts of climate change on
fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at
spatio-temporal scales relevant to the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model
Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP
models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections
remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world’s
fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact
projections have mostly ignored fishing activity due to a lack of
standardized historical and scenario-based human activity forcing and
uneven capabilities to dynamically model fisheries across the FishMIP
community. This, in addition to underrepresentation of coastal
processes, has limited the ability to evaluate the FishMIP ensemble’s
ability to adequately capture past states - a crucial step for building
confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have
developed two parallel simulation experiments (FishMIP 2.0) on: 1) model
evaluation and detection of past changes and 2) future scenarios and
projections. Key advances include historical climate forcing, that
captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and
standardized fishing forcing to systematically test fishing effects
across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a key step towards a detection and
attribution framework for marine ecosystem change at regional and global
scales, and towards enhanced policy relevance through increased
confidence in future ensemble projections.