The effect of stochastically environmental variability on transmission
dynamics of echinococcosis
Abstract
Echinococcosis, one of the most serious zoonotic diseases, has a severe
impact on the human health and economic development. This paper mainly
investigates the effect of stochastically environmental variability on
transmission dynamics of echinococcosis. Firstly, sufficient conditions
of the extinction in the mean for the disease are obtained. In addition,
by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, the existence
of the unique ergodic stationary distribution is established. Lastly,
numerical simulations have been performed to not only verify our
analytical results but also display that noise intensities would affect
the dynamical behaviors of this model, (i) these noise intensities for
three subgroups all have significantly negative impact on the extinction
time for $I_H(t)$, in particular, when the noise intensity for the
livestock $\sigma_L$ increases, the extinction time
for $I_H(t)$ decreases; (ii) these noise intensities for three
subgroups have the influence on the skewness and kurtosis of the
stationary distribution for $I_H(t)$, where the effect of the noise
intensity for humans $\sigma_H$ on the alteration of
the distribution shape for $I_H(t)$ is obvious, from skyscraping to
pyknic and gradually migrating towards left as
$\sigma_H$ increasing.