Possibilities Probability |
Known outcome |
Unknown outcome |
Known probability
|
Risk
Test accuracy (sensitivity, specificity, predictive
values)9 for the various tests in different
contexts10
Effects and side effects of new treatments
Prevalence of disease
|
Ambiguity
Unclear diagnostic criteria of COVID-19
What are the appropriate tests?10
What are the appropriate test procedures?
How to verify tests?11
How to define immunity?
|
Unknown probability
|
Fundamental (Knightian) Uncertainty
Basic Reproduction Number (R)12
Case Fatality Rate / Infection Fatality Rate
Being infected
Spreading the virus
Treatment outcomes13
Immunity
Effectiveness of intensive care treatment6
|
Ignorance
Late stage consequences of COVID-19
Treatment options13
Mutation potential
Obstacles to vaccine development and production
|