The first casualty of an epidemic is evidence.
We fight a ventured war against a virus, and the truth is claimed to be
the first casualty of war. However, behind concealment, conspiracy
theories, and lies 1 lie uncertainty and lack of
evidence. Hence, evidence is the first casualty of an epidemic.
We appear to be haunted by an invisible enemy,2,3 and
despite months with careful monitoring, extended testing, experimental
treatment, and 18702 scientific papers in PubMed (June 4), uncertainty
still prevails. Our urgent need for information makes us lower the bar
for evidence and thereby increasing the chance of bias and bad decisions4. The serious situation has led to ethical
exceptionalism,5 e.g., in terms of controlled human
infection (CHI) studies. Correspondingly, we are exposed to an epistemic
exceptionalism.4 For example, the extremely rapid and
“opinion-based” peer review6 has resulted in a surge
of retractions of COVID-19 papers.7 Accordingly, we
seem to be subject to an “epidemic of false claims and potentially
harmful actions.”6
In a situation with extensive uncertainty and an urgent need to act,
understanding the character of uncertainty is key.