Getting to terms with uncertainty

The uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic can be mapped onto four types: Risk, Fundamental uncertainty, Ignorance and Ambiguity. With Risk we have known outcomes and we know their probability distributions. With Fundamental uncertainty we know the outcomes, but not the probability distribution. When being ignorant we know neither. Ambiguity arises when experts disagree over the framing of possible contexts, options, outcomes, benefits or harms.8
Table 1 gives an overview of some specific and crucial uncertainties in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Table 1 Four types of uncertainty classified according to outcomes and risks. Adapted from.8