Getting to terms with
uncertainty
The uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic can be mapped onto four
types: Risk, Fundamental uncertainty, Ignorance and Ambiguity. With Risk
we have known outcomes and we know their probability distributions. With
Fundamental uncertainty we know the outcomes, but not the probability
distribution. When being ignorant we know neither. Ambiguity arises when
experts disagree over the framing of possible contexts, options,
outcomes, benefits or harms.8
Table 1 gives an overview of some specific and crucial uncertainties in
the COVID-19 pandemic.
Table 1 Four types of uncertainty classified according to
outcomes and risks. Adapted from.8