Possibilities Probability Known outcome Unknown outcome
Known probability
Risk With known risk, the tasks are to a) reduce the negative consequences of specific outcomes and b) to reduce their probability, e.g., by vaccines, better diagnostics, prognostics, and treatment. Ambiguity Define diagnostic criteria of COVID-19 Define appropriate tests (type) Define test procedures Define test verification Define immunity Define treatment outcomes
Unknown probability
Fundamental (Knightian) Uncertainty To reduce Fundamental uncertainty to Risk by estimating probabilities Ignorance Be alert to and reveal unknown but important factors, and reduce Ignorance to Fundamental uncertainty