The first casualty of an epidemic is evidence.
We fight a ventured war against a virus, and the truth is claimed to be the first casualty of war. However, behind concealment, conspiracy theories, and lies 1 lie uncertainty and lack of evidence. Hence, evidence is the first casualty of an epidemic.
We appear to be haunted by an invisible enemy,2,3 and despite months with careful monitoring, extended testing, experimental treatment, and 18702 scientific papers in PubMed (June 4), uncertainty still prevails. Our urgent need for information makes us lower the bar for evidence and thereby increasing the chance of bias and bad decisions4. The serious situation has led to ethical exceptionalism,5 e.g., in terms of controlled human infection (CHI) studies. Correspondingly, we are exposed to an epistemic exceptionalism.4 For example, the extremely rapid and “opinion-based” peer review6 has resulted in a surge of retractions of COVID-19 papers.7 Accordingly, we seem to be subject to an “epidemic of false claims and potentially harmful actions.”6
In a situation with extensive uncertainty and an urgent need to act, understanding the character of uncertainty is key.