Possibilities Probability Known outcome Unknown outcome
Known probability
Risk Test accuracy (sensitivity, specificity, predictive values)9 for the various tests in different contexts10 Effects and side effects of new treatments Prevalence of disease Ambiguity Unclear diagnostic criteria of COVID-19 What are the appropriate tests?10 What are the appropriate test procedures? How to verify tests?11 How to define immunity?
Unknown probability
Fundamental (Knightian) Uncertainty Basic Reproduction Number (R)12 Case Fatality Rate / Infection Fatality Rate Being infected Spreading the virus Treatment outcomes13 Immunity Effectiveness of intensive care treatment6 Ignorance Late stage consequences of COVID-19 Treatment options13 Mutation potential Obstacles to vaccine development and production