Evaluating Water Balance Variables under Land Use and Climate
Projections in Heavily Forested Watershed in a Humid Region
Abstract
The hydrological processes in Upper Choctawhatchee River Watershed were
modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate
the impacts of climate and land use change. We integrated land use
projection based in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with future
climate data to study the combined effects on Hydrological response of
the watershed. Future rainfall and temperature, for two time periods,
were obtained using General Climate Models to provide SWAT with the
climatic forcing in order to project water balance variables. The
simulation was carried out under two radiative forcing pathways of
RCP4.5 and RCP6.0. Model calibration metrics of NSE, R2, and p-factor
were 0.88, 0.89, and 0.68, respectively. Results revealed increases as
high as 2.55 ℃ and 2.4 ℃ for average annual minimum and maximum
temperature, respectively, especially during Summer and Winter. Average
annual precipitation was estimated to increase up to 11% under both
emission scenarios; however, under severe emissions of RCP6.0, it was
projected for two decades earlier. Land use change focused on
urbanization dominated the climate changes. Impacts on water balance
variables differed seasonally. Results showed surface runoff experienced
major changes under both emission scenarios in some months up to 5 times
increase. Among the water balance variables, ET as the least dominant
pathways for water loss, showed the modest changes with the largest
decrease during Fall and Summer. Projection indicated more frequent
extreme behavior regarding water balance during midcentury. Discharge
was estimated to increase through the year and the highest changes were
projected during Summer and Fall with 186.3% increase in November under
RCP6.0. Relying on rainfall for farming along with reduced agricultural
landuse (11.8%) and increased urban area (47%) and population growth,
would likely make the water use efficiency critical. The model
demonstrated satisfactory performance, capturing the hydrologic
parameters. It thus can be used for further modelling of water quality
to determine the sustainable conservation practices, extreme weather
events such as hurricane and tropical storms.