Methods/Structure
Section 1 summarises evidence on recorded cases of the virus, deaths, and excess deaths – all in the context of restrictions adopted. Section 2 turns to issues of interpretation focusing on how much of the slowdown in the spread of the virus, and of deaths attributed to it, may have been due to lockdowns and how much to the curve turning down independently of severe restrictions. Section 3 summarises evidence from countries with different policies and draws some conclusions on the scale of benefits of the lockdown. Section 4 focuses on the costs of restrictive policies to slow the spread of the infections; section 5 brings costs and benefits together and section 6 considers policy options for coming out of lockdown. Conclusions are drawn in a final section.