Section 1: Recorded cases, deaths and excess deaths
Figure 1 shows the number of new positive cases tested for in several European countries between early 2020 and June. Figure 2 shows cumulative deaths where there is evidence that the deceased had the COVID-19 infection. Figure 3 shows a measure of excess deaths – that is total deaths above the average of such deaths over the comparable months in previous years. Figure 4 shows a measure of the stringency of government restrictions introduced in European countries to counter the spread of the virus.
Several measurement issues make it difficult to draw conclusions from these data with high confidence. The number of tests undertaken (relative to population) varies within countries over time and also between countries and this will affect the numbers who tested positive for the virus and the prevalence of untested cases. While data on the numbers of deaths is reliable, ascribing death to the virus is not – even if one could accurately measure the numbers who have diedwith the virus the prevalence of co-morbidities means that drawing conclusions about the scale of deaths caused by the virus is problematic. Focusing on “excess deaths” is a different way of assessing the impact of the virus but since some deaths will be a result of restrictions, rather than infections, it is also an imperfect measure.
Despite measurement issues, certain conclusions from the data in Figures 1-4 seem robust.
  1. The spread of the infection after the first few recorded cases within European countries was extremely rapid and consistent with initial reproduction numbers far in excess of 1 and quite likely close to 3.
  2. In late February or early March 2020, many European countries brought in severe restrictions on movement meaning that the majority of populations stayed home and numbers able to work fell dramatically (as shown in Figure 4). Such restrictions came in earlier in countries where the numbers recorded with the infection had risen sharply earliest – most notably Italy. There were also places where restrictions were much less severe than in most countries – most notably in Sweden.
  3. New measured cases of the infection and of deaths ascribed to the virus were significantly lower within a few weeks of restrictions being introduced. There is some evidence of a flattening in new cases ahead of severe restrictions being introduced.
  4. The slowing in new infections and in deaths has been marked in all countries in recent weeks, though the severity of restrictions and the timing of those restrictions differ.