Cycles-L: A coupled, 3-D, land surface, hydrologic, and agroecosystem
landscape model
Abstract
Managing landscapes to increase agricultural productivity and
environmental stewardship requires spatially distributed models that can
integrate data and operate at spatial and temporal scales that are
intervention-relevant. This paper presents Cycles-L, a landscape-scale,
coupled agroecosystem hydrologic modeling system. Cycles-L couples a 3-D
land surface hydrologic model, Flux-PIHM, with a 1-D agroecosystem
model, Cycles. Cycles-L takes the landscape and hydrology structure from
Flux-PIHM and most agroecosystem processes from Cycles. Consequently,
Cycles-L can simulate landscape level processes affected by topography,
soil heterogeneity, and management practices, owing to its
physically-based hydrologic component and ability to simulate horizontal
and vertical transport of mineral nitrogen (N) with water. The model was
tested at a 730-ha agricultural experimental watershed within the
Mahantango Creek watershed in Pennsylvania. Cycles-L simulated well
stream water discharge and N exports (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.55
and 0.58, respectively), and grain crop yield (root mean square error
1.01 Mg ha−1), despite some uncertainty in the
accuracy of survey-based input data. Cycles-L outputs are as good if not
better than those obtained with the uncoupled Flux-PIHM (water
discharge) and Cycles (crop yield) models. Model predicted spatial
patterns of N fluxes clearly show the combined control of crop
management and topography. Cycles-L spatial and temporal resolution
fills a gap in the availability of analytical models at an operational
scale relevant to evaluate costly strategic and tactical interventions
in silico, and can become a core component of tools for
applications in precision agriculture, precision conservation, and
artificial intelligence-based decision support systems.