Association between climatic factors and COVID-19 transmission in a
global South megacity
Abstract
A flu-like disease (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus has emerged
in Wuhan, China in December, 2019 that is shortly turned into a public
health concern globally. The effect of climatic variables on COVID-19
transmission is of paramount importance. However, the interactions are
still controversial. This study investigated the association between
climatic factors and COVID-19 spread in Dhaka megacity, Bangladesh. Data
on the daily confirmed new cases of COVID-19 and climate parameters were
collected from March 8, 2020 to April 30, 2020 in Dhaka City,
Bangladesh. A log-linked negative binomial regression model was applied
to estimate the association between climatic factors and transmission of
COVID-19 cases. The daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were found
positively associated with 14-days moving average of the daily average
temperature (AvgT) and Relative Humidity (RH). Each 1°C increase of AvgT
was associated with 2.76 times increase of daily confirmed new cases
whereas 1% increase of RH was linked to an increase of 18% of the
daily confirmed new cases of COVID-19. The study also found RH to be the
stronger predictor and moderator between the AvgT and the daily cases of
COVID-19 in Dhaka City. The results provide no evidence that COVID-19
could fade out itself when warmer season arrives. Thus, effective public
health control measures must be implemented to prevent the further
transmission of COVID-19.