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\begin{document}

\title{Linking the North Atlantic Oscillation to winter precipitation over the
Western Himalaya through disturbances of the subtropical jet}



\author[1]{Kieran M. R. Hunt}%
\author[2]{Sumira Nazir Zaz}%
\author[3]{Shakil Ahmad Romshoo}%
\affil[1]{University of Reading}%
\affil[2]{University of Kashmir}%
\affil[3]{Kashmir university}%


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  \date{May 19, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Winter (December to March) precipitation is vital to the agriculture and
water security of the Western Himalaya and is largely brought to the
region by extratropical systems, known as western disturbances (WDs),
which are embedded in the subtropical jet. In this study, using seventy
years of data, it is shown that during positive phases of the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+), the subtropical jet is significantly more
intense than during negative phases (NAO-). Accordingly, the NAO affects
WD behaviour on 2-3 year and 12-16 year timescales: during NAO+ periods,
WDs are on average 20\% more common and 7\% more intense than during
NAO- periods. This results in 40\% more moisture flux entering the
region and impinging on the Western Himalaya and an average increase in
winter precipitation of 45\% in NAO+ compared to NAO-.%
\end{abstract}%



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