Prediction of Clinical Outcomes in Women with Placenta Accreta Spectrum
Using Machine Learning Models: An International Multicenter Study
Abstract
Objective: To establish a prediction model of clinical outcomes in women
with placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) Design: Retrospective cohort study
Setting: International multicenter study (PAS-ID); 11 centers from 9
countries Population: Women who were diagnosed with PAS and were managed
in recruiting centers between January 1st, 2010 and December 31st, 2019.
Methods: Data were collected using a standardized sheet, which included
baseline information, medical and obstetric history, diagnosis, disease
characteristics, management, and outcomes. Analysis of association
between these variables and primary outcome was first conducted using
conventional logistic regression. Data were reanalyzed using machine
learning (ML) models, and 2 models were created to predict outcomes
using antepartum and perioperative features. Main Outcome Measures:
Massive PAS-associated perioperative blood loss (intraoperative blood
loss ≥ 2500 ml, triggering massive transfusion protocol, or complicated
by disseminated intravascular coagulopathy). Other outcomes include
prolonged hospitalization > 7 days and admission to
intensive care unit (ICU). Results: 727 women with PAS were included.
Area under curve (AUC) for ML antepartum prediction model was 0.84,
0.81, and 0.82 for massive blood loss, prolonged hospitalization, and
admission to ICU, respectively. Significant contributors to this model
were parity, placental site, method of diagnosis and antepartum
hemoglobin. Combing baseline and perioperative variables, ML model
performed at 0.86, 0.90, and 0.86 for study outcomes, respectively. This
model was most contributed by ethnicity, pelvic invasion, and uterine
incision. Conclusions: ML models may be used to calculate individualized
risk of morbidity in women with PAS, which may assist to outline
management plan in priori