Abstract
Introduction The risk stratification of infants presenting to the
emergency department with bronchiolitis who are at risk for receiving
airway support during their hospital stay has been insufficiently
studied. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical predictors
of hospitalization with airway support (“escalated care”) among
infants with recurrent wheezing evaluated in the emergency department
Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in infants with one
or more wheezing episode, younger than two years of age in tertiary
centers in Rionegro, Colombia. The primary outcome measure was escalated
care defined as hospitalization plus any airway support. A multivariate
logistic regression model was performed to estimate predictors of
escalated care. To assess discrimination and calibration,
area-under-the-curve (AUC) and calibration plots were calculated.
Results A total of 665 cases were included and 85 infants received
escalated care. The variables included risk score for escalated care
within 5 days of admission to the emergency room including prematurity,
poor feeding, nasal flaring and/or grunting, and previous wheezing
episodes requiring hospitalization, The model has a high specificity
(99.6%) with acceptable AUC of 0.70 (CI 95% 0.60- 0.74). Conclusion: A
clinical risk score was created based on the odds ratio of each of the
identified variables, which appears to be useful for estimating the
absolute risk of escalated care within 5 days of admission to the ED.
However, external validation is required before this clinical score is
applied in general practice in any ED setting