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Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020
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  • Simon Haydn Lee,
  • Zachary Duane Lawrence,
  • Amy Hawes Butler,
  • Alexey Yurievich Karpechko
Simon Haydn Lee
University of Reading, University of Reading

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Zachary Duane Lawrence
CIRES/NOAA, CIRES/NOAA
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Amy Hawes Butler
CIRES/NOAA, CIRES/NOAA
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Alexey Yurievich Karpechko
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finnish Meteorological Institute
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Abstract

The winter of 2019-20 was dominated by an extremely strong stratospheric polar vortex and positive tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO). Here, we analyze forecasts from 6 different prediction systems contributing to the C3S seasonal forecast database. Most performed very strongly, with consistently high skill for January-March 2020 from forecasts launched through October–December 2019. Although the magnitude of the anomalies was underestimated, the performance of most prediction systems was extremely high for a positive AO winter relative to the common hindcast climate. Ensemble members which better predicted the extremely strong stratospheric vortex better predicted the extreme tropospheric state. We find a significant relationship between forecasts of the anomalous mid-latitude tropospheric wave pattern in early winter, which destructively interfered with the climatological stationary waves, and the strength of the stratospheric vortex later in the winter. Our results demonstrate a strong interdependence between the accuracy of stratospheric vortex and AO forecasts.
16 Nov 2020Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 47 issue 21. 10.1029/2020GL090328