Abstract
The winter of 2019-20 was dominated by an extremely strong stratospheric
polar vortex and positive tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO). Here, we
analyze forecasts from 6 different prediction systems contributing to
the C3S seasonal forecast database. Most performed very strongly, with
consistently high skill for January-March 2020 from forecasts launched
through October–December 2019. Although the magnitude of the anomalies
was underestimated, the performance of most prediction systems was
extremely high for a positive AO winter relative to the common hindcast
climate. Ensemble members which better predicted the extremely strong
stratospheric vortex better predicted the extreme tropospheric state. We
find a significant relationship between forecasts of the anomalous
mid-latitude tropospheric wave pattern in early winter, which
destructively interfered with the climatological stationary waves, and
the strength of the stratospheric vortex later in the winter. Our
results demonstrate a strong interdependence between the accuracy of
stratospheric vortex and AO forecasts.