A non-stationary climate-informed weather generator for assessing of
future flood risks
Abstract
We present a novel non-stationary Regional Weather Generator (nsRWG)
based on an auto-regressive process and marginal distributions
conditioned on climate variables. We use large-scale circulation
patterns as a latent variable and regional daily mean temperature as a
covariate for marginal precipitation distributions to account for
dynamic and thermodynamic changes in the atmosphere, respectively.
Circulation patterns are classified using ERA5 reanalysis mean sea level
pressure fields. We set up nsRWG for the Central European region using
data from the E-OBS dataset, covering major river basins in Germany and
riparian countries. nsRWG is meticulously evaluated, showing good
results in reproducing at-site and spatial characteristics of
precipitation and temperature. Using time series of circulation patterns
and the regional daily mean temperature derived from General Circulation
Models (GCMs), we inform nsRWG about the projected future climate. In
this approach, we utilize GCM output variables, such as pressure and
temperature, which are typically more accurately simulated by GCMs than
precipitation. In an exemplary application, nsRWG statistically
downscales precipitation from nine CMIP6 GCMs generating a long
synthetic but spatially and temporally consistent weather series. The
results suggest an increase in extreme precipitation over the German
basins, aligning with previous regional analyses. nsRWG offers a key
benefit for hydrological impact studies by providing long-term
(thousands of years) consistent synthetic weather data indispensable for
the robust estimation of probability changes of hydrologic extremes such
as floods.