Abstract
Southern Hemisphere (SH) Stratospheric Warming Events (SWEs) are usually
associated with a negative phase of the tropospheric Southern Annular
Mode (SAM) during the following summer. In contrast, using ensemble
climate model simulations we show that the anomalously high ozone
concentrations typically occurring during SWEs can force periods of
persistent positive tropospheric SAM in austral spring by increasing
lower stratospheric static stability and changing
troposphere-to-stratosphere wave propagation. Eventually, the
tropospheric SAM switches sign to its negative phase in late
spring/early summer, but this ‘downward propagation’ of the
stratospheric signal does not occur in simulations without seasonal
cycle. We find that the downward propagation is forced both dynamically
by adiabatic heating and radiatively by increased shortwave absorption
by ozone due to the seasonal cycle. Capturing this ozone forcing
mechanism in models requires the inclusion of interactive ozone, which
has important implications for the predictive skill of current seasonal
forecasting systems.