Runoff data series prediction based on Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode
Decomposition with Adaptive Noise and Radial Basis Function Neural
Network extension
Abstract
This study investigated the influence of data extension on the
decomposition and prediction accuracy of runoff data series. To this
end, an original data series was constructed using annual runoff data
from a hydrological station in China (Tang Naihai) for the period
1956–2013, and radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) extension
was applied to the original data series. Complete ensemble empirical
mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) was then applied to
both data series, and their decomposition and prediction results were
compared. The decomposition results indicate that the end effect
significantly lowers the accuracy of low–middle frequency components.
Nevertheless, the end effect could be effectively suppressed and
decomposition error could be reduced by applying RBFNN extension. At the
end points, the extension data series could more accurately reflect the
real fluctuation characteristics of components and subsequent variation
trends. Regarding component prediction, the prediction results followed
the variation trend of the components themselves, with a rather large
gap in the prediction results of low-frequency components between the
two groups of data series. The final prediction results obtained from
the reconstruction of the component prediction results suggest that the
extension sequence has a clearly superior prediction accuracy than the
original data series. Hence, when using the CEEMDAN method to process
non-stationary hydrological data, multi-time-scale information of the
data series can be obtained through reasonable extension after
decomposition of the original data series. The acquired information
provides evidence for the analysis and prediction of the evolution law
of hydrological elements.