Collided with COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 Yangtze flood is exceptionally
severe.
Abstract
During June to July, 2020, persistent heavy precipitation in the Yangtze
River Basin (YRB) is resulting in extensive flooding, with over 158
fatalities and tremendous economic losses. This year’s disastrous
flooding extreme is exceptionally different from those of other years.
It contains over 1000-year return period events (for 30-day cumulative
precipitation) as observed in Anhui, Guizhou and Sichuan Provinces. The
mean precipitation is 308 mm in July 2020, being 54 mm higher than that
of July 1998, when serious floods affected the entire Basin causing
tremendous socio-economic consequences. Compared with 1998, the
short-term (e.g., 1 day) precipitation in YRB did not show significant
increases, while the long-term (e.g., 30 days) cumulative precipitation
increases significantly. The highest observed 30-day cumulative
precipitation is 1221 mm (in Anhui Province) in 2020, while the highest
one in 1998 was 1028 mm (in Jiangxi Province). We thus find that this
persistent heavy precipitation is the main cause of flooding in 2020. At
the same time, TGR may mitigate up 43% of upstream flood, although the
main contributors to this year’s YRB flood are in the middle and lower
reaches. Affected by COVID-19, the number of people at risk in the
threatened area are increased, and their capacities to mitigate the dual
impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and flooding are hindered since (a) the
flooding-caused mitigations may limit people’s ability to prevent from
virus spreading, and (b) the pandemic is retaining a large amount of
migrant workers being within YRB and subject to flooding impacts.
Overall, our main discovery is that, although the short-term
precipitation in YRB did not increase significantly in 2020, the
cumulative one increased significantly in 2020!