Diagnosing Primary Condensation Rate Attributed to the Moisture
Convergence: Applications to Atmospheric River Analysis and
Extratropical Storm Classification
Abstract
Abnormally heavy precipitation events can lead to numerous hazards,
including flooding, landslides, and avalanches. Their developments
require a sufficient supply of moisture and some physical mechanism to
produce condensation. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) defined as long and
narrow corridors of strong horizontal moisture transport can provide
such necessary conditions. The presence and strength of ARs are often
described using the integrated water vapor (IWV) and the integrated
vapor transport (IVT). However, the associated precipitation is not
directly correlated with these two variables. It is the net convergence
of moisture that determines the intensity of precipitation. The purpose
of this study is to illustrate, in the context of AR analysis, how the
converged vapor should be distributed between condensation and air
moistening. A simple algorithm is proposed for estimating the heavy
precipitation attributable to the IVT convergence. Bearing a strong
resemblance to the Kuo-Anthes parameterization scheme for cumulus
convection, the proposed algorithm calculates the large-scale primary
condensation rate (PCR) as a proportion of the IVT convergence, with a
reduction to account for the general moistening in the atmosphere. The
amount of reduction is determined by the column relative humidity (CRH),
which is defined as the ratio of IWV to its saturation counterpart. It
is found that the PCR in an air column with CRH < 0.60 is
negligibly small. Based on a one-year dataset from the Canadian global
numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the best cut-off value of CRH
for the algorithm is 0.66. It is demonstrated that this diagnosable PCR
compares well to the forecast precipitation rate given by the NWP model.
Case studies are conducted to illustrate the usefulness of CRH and PCR
as two complements to standard AR analysis and impact-based storm
classification.