A Novel Technique for Nowcasting Extreme Rainfall Events using Early
Microphysical Signatures of Cloud Development
Abstract
The extensive damages of extreme rainfall events (EREs) and associated
natural disasters on the natural and anthropogenic resources and the
enormous economic losses underscore the requirement for developing early
warning systems to mitigate the impact of such disasters. However,
accurate forecasting of EREs at a regional scale and at higher lead
times is challenging due to the uncertainties involved in the model
predictions. This study proposes a novel technique to nowcast the heavy
and extreme rainfall events using the early signatures of the
microphysical evolution of mesoscale convective clouds. The nowcasting
method integrates the cloud top temperature (T)-cloud effective radius
(re) profile derived using remote sensing methods and logistic
regression modelling to estimate the probability for the occurrence of
heavy and extreme rainfall events. The capability of the method is
demonstrated by nowcasting different recent EREs over the windward
slopes of the southern Western Ghats (Kerala, India). The results of the
analysis of the T-re profiles of the normal, heavy and extreme rainfall
events of August 2018 are significantly distinct and indicates polluted
(aerosol-rich) scenario during EREs. The study suggests significant
interactions between moisture availability and aerosol concentration
during the occurrence of EREs in August 2018, along with their
independent effects. The proposed technique shows distinctive competency
for nowcasting the EREs at a regional scale with an overall accuracy of
93% and at a lead time of not less than six hours. This study
highlights the significance of the aerosol-cloud interactions in the
occurrence of EREs of the region and suggests the importance of the
aerosol pollution leading to EREs and associated natural disasters.