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Rising Severe Convective Storms in the Peruvian Central Andes: Projections from Convection Permitting Regional Climate Simulations
  • +10
  • Yongjie Huang,
  • Ming Xue,
  • Xiao-Ming Hu,
  • Elinor Martin,
  • Héctor Mayol Novoa,
  • Renee A. McPherson,
  • Changhai Liu,
  • Mengye Chen,
  • Yang Hong,
  • Andres Perez,
  • Isaac Yanqui Morales,
  • José Luis Ticona Jara,
  • Auria Julieta Flores Luna
Yongjie Huang
Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Ming Xue
Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma
Xiao-Ming Hu
Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma
Elinor Martin
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, University of Oklahoma
Héctor Mayol Novoa
Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa, Arequipa, Perú
Renee A. McPherson
South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center, University of Oklahoma, Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma
Changhai Liu
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
Mengye Chen
Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Engineering, University of Oklahoma
Yang Hong
School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Engineering, University of Oklahoma
Andres Perez
Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa, Arequipa, Perú
Isaac Yanqui Morales
Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa, Arequipa, Perú
José Luis Ticona Jara
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú (SENAMHI)
Auria Julieta Flores Luna
Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa, Arequipa, Perú

Abstract

To explore the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Peruvian Central Andes, a region with complex terrain, two future and one historical convection-permitting regional climate simulations are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. All simulations adopt consistent model configurations and two nested domains with grid spacings of 15 and 3 km covering the entire South America and the Peruvian Central Andes, respectively. The future simulations are run for 2070-2080 and driven by a bias-corrected global dataset derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios. Results show geographically dependent changes in annual precipitation, with a consistent rise in the frequency of intense hourly precipitation across all examined regions. The western Amazon Basin shows a decrease in annual precipitation, while increases exist in parts of the Peruvian west coast and the east slope of the Andes under both future scenarios. In the warming scenarios, there is an overall increase in the frequency, precipitation intensity, and size of MCSs east of the Andes, with MCS precipitation volume increasing by up to ~22.2%. Despite consistently enhanced synoptic-scale low-level jets in future scenarios, changes in low-level dynamic convergence are inhomogeneous and predominantly influence annual precipitation changes. The increased convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and precipitable water (PW) in a warming climate suppress weak convection, while fostering a more unstable and moisture-rich atmosphere facilitating more intense convection and the formation and intensification of heavy precipitation-producing MCSs. The study highlights the value of convection-permitting climate simulations in projecting future severe weather hazards and informing climate adaptation strategies, especially in regions characterized by complex terrain.
Keywords severe convective storms, future projections, convection-permitting, regional climate simulations, Peruvian Central Andes
Key points
  • Convection-permitting regional climate simulations are conducted to investigate the climate change impacts on precipitation and mesoscale convective systems in the Peruvian Central Andes.
  • Intense hourly precipitation and organized convective storms become more frequent in the Peruvian Central Andes under a warming climate.
  • Increased convective available potential energy (CAPE), convective inhibition (CIN), and precipitable water (PW) in a warming climate shift the convection population.