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Wildfire Emission Factor Uncertainty and Modeled Atmospheric CO and O3
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  • Rebecca Buchholz,
  • Wenfu Tang,
  • Christine Wiedinmyer,
  • Louisa Emmons,
  • Benjamin Gaubert,
  • Forrest Lacey,
  • Mijeong Park,
  • Rebecca Schwantes,
  • Simone Tilmes,
  • Helen Worden
Rebecca Buchholz
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Wenfu Tang
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory
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Christine Wiedinmyer
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado
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Louisa Emmons
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory
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Benjamin Gaubert
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory
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Forrest Lacey
National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Mijeong Park
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory
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Rebecca Schwantes
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
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Simone Tilmes
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory
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Helen Worden
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory
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Abstract

Wildfire emissions can vary substantially between different inventories due to the assumptions made in the emission creation process, including the defined vegetation type, fire detection, fuel loading, fraction of vegetation burned and emissions factors. Here, we focus on the uncertainty in emission factors and the resulting impact on modeled composition. We use the Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry (CAM-chem) to simulate 2014 atmospheric composition and focus on carbon monoxide (CO), a trace gas emitted from incomplete combustion and also produced from secondary oxidation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Fire is a major source of atmospheric CO and VOCs. Multiple simulations are compared, from an ensemble using four fire emission inventories (CMIP6/GFED4s, QFED2.5, GFAS1.2 and FINN1.5) and a range of sensitivity tests based on CO and VOC emission factor uncertainties. We compare model output and evaluate against CO observations from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite-based instrument. For some regions, emission factor uncertainty spans the results found by using different inventories. Finally, we use modeled ozone (O3) to investigate how emission factor uncertainty influences the atmospheric oxidative environment. Overall, accounting for emission factor uncertainty lends a range of uncertainty to simulated results.