Reversal of Projected European Summer Precipitation Decline in a
Stabilising Climate
Abstract
Precipitation projections in transient climate change scenarios have
been extensively studied over multiple climate model generations.
Although these simulations have also been used to make projections at
specific Global Warming Levels (GWLs), dedicated simulations are more
appropriate to study changes in a stabilising climate. Here, we analyse
precipitation projections in six multi-century experiments with fixed
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, conducted with the UK
Earth System Model (UKESM) and which span a range of GWLs between 1.5
and 5°C of warming. Regions are identified where the sign of
precipitation trends in high-emission transient projections is reversed
in the stabilisation experiments. For example, stabilisation reverses a
summertime precipitation decline across Europe. This precipitation
recovery occurs concurrently with changes in the pattern of Atlantic sea
surface temperature trends due to a slow recovery of the Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation in the stabilisation experiments,
along with changes in humidity and atmospheric circulation.