Retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Last Interglaciation and
implications for future change
Abstract
The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) response to past warming consistent with
the 1.5–2°C ‘safe limit’ of the United Nations Paris Agreement is
currently not well known. Empirical evidence from the most recent
comparable period, the Last Interglaciation, is sparse, and transient
ice-sheet experiments are few and inconsistent. Here we present new,
transient, GCM-forced ice-sheet simulations validated against proxy
reconstructions. This is the first time such an evaluation has been
attempted. Our empirically-constrained simulations indicate that the AIS
contributed 4 m to global mean sea level by 126 ka BP, with ice lost
primarily from the Amundsen, but not Ross or Weddell Sea, sectors. We
resolve conflict between previous work and show that the AIS thinned in
the Wilkes Subglacial Basin but did not retreat. We also find that the
West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be predisposed to future collapse even in
the absence of further environmental change, consistent with previous
studies.