Extratropical Cyclone Response to Projected Reductions in Snow Extent
over the Great Plains
Abstract
Extratropical cyclones are major contributors to consequential weather
in the mid-latitudes and tend to develop in regions of enhanced
cyclogenesis and progress along climatological storm tracks. Numerous
studies have noted the influence that terrestrial snow cover exerts on
atmospheric baroclinicity which is critical to the formation and
trajectories of such cyclones. Fewer studies have examined the explicit
role which continental snow cover extent has in determining cyclones
intensities, trajectories, and precipitation characteristics. While
several examinations of climate model projections have generally shown a
poleward shift in storm tracks by the late 21st century, none have
determined the degree to which the coincident poleward shift in snow
extent is responsible. A method of imposing 10th , 50th , and 90th
percentile values of snow retreat between the late 20th and 21st
centuries as projected by 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase
Five (CMIP5) models is used to alter 20 historical cold season cyclones
which tracked over or adjacent to the North American Great Plains.
Simulations by the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and
Forecast Model (WRF-ARW) are initialized at 0 to 4 days prior to
cyclogenesis. Cyclone trajectories and their central sea level pressure
did not change substantially, but followed consistent spatial trends.
Near-surface wind speed generally increased, as did precipitation with
preferred phase change from solid to liquid state. Cyclone-associated
precipitation often shifted poleward as snow was removed. Variable
responses were dependent on the month in which cyclones occurred, with
stronger responses in the midwinter than the shoulder months.