Abstract
Conventional wisdom suggests any effort to control pests and parasites
is better than none. However, growing evidence demonstrates weak or
moderate effort can backfire, fail, and potentially worsen outcomes
versus doing nothing. A central challenge is anticipating these
potential failures before inducing environmental damage. We built a
resource-explicit individual-based model of human schistosome and snail
host transmission to evaluate biocontrol effort by simulating 22
predator stocking densities of native prawns. We test two host mortality
scenarios and show intense biocontrol effort can succeed. However, weak
to moderate effort can backfire by allowing large, prolific hosts to
escape predation and drive overcompensation due to three interacting
ecological mechanisms—resource competition among hosts,
resource-dependent infectiousness, and predator gape limits. Ultimately,
integrating physiology, ecology, and epidemiology can identify the risks
of weak or moderate control effort when evaluating potential ‘do or do
not’ control designs for future management of wildlife pests and
diseases.