INTRODUCTION As we enter the advanced-detector era of ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) astronomy, it is critical that we understand the abilities and limitations of the analyses we are prepared to conduct. Of the many predicted sources of GWs, binary neutron-star (BNS) coalescences are paramount; their progenitors have been directly observed , and the advanced detectors will be sensitive to their GW emission up to ∼400 Mpc away . When analyzing a GW signal from a circularized compact binary merger, strong degeneracies exist between parameters describing the binary (e.g., distance and inclination). To properly estimate any particular parameter(s) of interest, the marginal distribution is estimated by integrating the joint posterior probability density function (PDF) over all other parameters. In this work, we sample the posterior PDF using software implemented in the LALINFERENCE library . Specifically we use results from LALINFERNCE_NEST , a nest sampling algorithm , and LALINFERENCE_MCMC , a Markov-chain Monte Carlo algorithm \citep[chapter 12]{Gregory2005}. Previous studies of BNS signals have largely assessed parameter constraints assuming negligible neutron-star (NS) spin, restricting models to nine parameters. This simplification has largely been due to computational constraints, but the slow spin of NSs in short-period BNS systems observed to date \citep[e.g.,][]{Mandel_2010} has also been used as justification. However, proper characterization of compact binary sources _must_ account for the possibility of non-negligible spin; otherwise parameter estimates will be biased . This bias can potentially lead to incorrect conclusions about source properties and even misidentification of source classes. Numerous studies have looked at the BNS parameter estimation abilities of ground-based GW detectors such as the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory \citep[aLIGO;][]{Aasi_2015} and Advanced Virgo \citep[AdV;][]{Acernese_2014} detectors. assessed localization abilities on a simulated non-spinning BNS population. looked at several potential advanced-detector networks and quantified the parameter-estimation abilities of each network for a signal from a fiducial BNS with non-spinning NSs. demonstrated the ability to characterize signals from non-spinning BNS sources with waveform models for spinning sources using Bayesian stochastic samplers in the LALINFERENCE library . used approximate methods to quantify the degeneracy between spin and mass estimates, assuming the compact objects’ spins are aligned with the orbital angular momentum of the binary \citep[but see][]{Haster_2015}. simulated a collection of loud signals from non-spinning BNS sources in several mass bins and quantified parameter estimation capabilities in the advanced-detector era using non-spinning models. introduced precession from spin–orbit coupling and found that the additional richness encoded in the waveform could reduce the mass–spin degeneracy, helping BNSs to be distinguished from NS–black hole (BH) binaries. conducted a similar analysis of a large catalog of sources and found that it is difficult to infer the presence of a mass gap between NSs and BHs , although, this may still be possible using a population of a few tens of detections . Finally, and the follow-on represent an (almost) complete end-to-end simulation of BNS detection and characterization during the first 1–2 years of the advanced-detector era. These studies simulated GWs from an astrophysically motivated BNS population, then detected and characterized sources using the search and follow-up tools that are used for LIGO–Virgo data analysis . The final stage of the analysis missing from these studies is the computationally expensive characterization of sources while accounting for the compact objects’ spins and their degeneracies with other parameters. The present work is the final step of BNS characterization for the simulations using waveforms that account for the effects of NS spin. We begin with a brief introduction to the source catalog used for this study and in section [sec:sources]. Then, in section [sec:spin] we describe the results of parameter estimation from a full analysis that includes spin. In section [sec:mass] we look at mass estimates in more detail and spin-magnitude estimates in section [sec:spin-magnitudes]. In section [sec:extrinsic] we consider the estimation of extrinsic parameters: sky position (section [sec:sky]) and distance (section [sec:distance]), which we do not expect to be significantly affected by the inclusion of spin in the analysis templates. We summarize our findings in section [sec:conclusions]. A comparison of computational costs for spinning and non-spinning parameter estimation is given in appendix [ap:CPU].

The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies that strike a balance between risk management and cost. Two major techniques policy makers have at their disposal are: epidemic modeling and contact tracing. Models are used to forecast the evolution of the epidemic both globally and regionally, while contact tracing is used to reconstruct the chain of people who have been potentially infected, so that they can be tested, isolated and treated immediately. However, both techniques might provide limited information, especially during an already advanced crisis when the need for action is urgent. In this paper we propose an alternative approach that goes beyond epidemic modeling and contact tracing, and leverages behavioral data generated by mobile carrier networks to evaluate contagion risk on a per-user basis. The individual risk represents the loss incurred by not isolating or treating a specific person, both in terms of how likely it is for this person to spread the disease as well as how many secondary infections it will cause. To this aim, we develop a model, named _Progmosis_, which quantifies this risk based on movement and regional aggregated statistics about infection rates. We develop and release an open-source tool that calculates this risk based on cellular network events. We simulate a realistic epidemic scenarios, based on an Ebola virus outbreak; we find that gradually restricting the mobility of a subset of individuals reduces the number of infected people after 30 days by 24%. While these results are promising, it is important to underline the fact that this is only an initial foundational work and to stress some key points. First, this paper focuses on a theoretical model, rather than on its actual translation into a real-world system. In particular, centralized deployments of this model would pose several ethical questions, as they would require access to user data. Decentralized deployments for which user mobility data never leaves the mobile device of a user are possible and should be preferred, as they fully protect user privacy. Second, results are generated from computer-based simulations, under specific assumptions. Social factors and technical difficulties might greatly affect results obtained in the real world. Third, this risk-assessment tool is not designed specifically for implementing containment measures based on mobility restrictions. For example, it could be used to advise users about the most appropriate behavior given his/her risk profile (e.g., willingly change own behavior, see a doctor, and similar); users would finally choose whether to follow the advice or not. Finally, the simulations were run on data call records from a country that is according to WHO Ebola-free , and this work has not been commissioned neither by Orange nor by any other entity for preparation to a real-world disease outbreak.

1.IntroductionThere has been some recent and growing interest in the continuity and discontinuity of cognition between clinical and non-clinical populations. Whilst some researchers have addressed these topics to call into question some normative standards of rationality typically used in the literature (Hertwig and Volz 2013), others have referred to the alleged presence of imperfect cognitions in both mentally ill and healthy subjects to argue that no effective demarcation between normal and abnormal cognition can be achieved and to combat the stigma associated with mental health (Sullivan Bissett et al. 2016).Research on confabulation is of particular interest in this context. Confabulation is a symptom central to many psychiatric diagnoses which has more recently been reported also in non-clinical contexts. More precisely, it was originally discussed in the context of patients with Korsakoff syndrome with severe amnesia, who would report as memories events that either did not happen or had happened much earlier in the patient’s life (Hirstein 2005), but has also been associated with chronic alcohol consumption, posterior circulation stroke, traumatic brain injury, tutors, and schizophrenia (Schnider 2008, 75). Some non-clinical populations, such as highly hypnotizable subjects, have been described as particularly prone to confabulation (Cox et al. 2009). But confabulatory phenomena have been taken to be more generally a trait shared both by clinical and non-clinical populations (Coltheart 2017; Wheatley 2009). Notably, psychologist Fiery Cushman (2011) argued that the concept of confabulation that is typically used in the context of neurological patients and clinical populations should also be used in non-clinical contexts and to refer to the explanations of our own behavior that we typically provide, which are sometimes wholly fabricated, and certainly never complete.Non-clinical confabulation has become a topic of special interest in several corners of scholarly research. For instance, philosophers have also started to write quite extensively on the topic (Sullivan-Bissett 2015; Balsvik 2017; Carruthers 2012; Mihailov 2016; Sandis 2015; Strijbos and De Bruin 2015; Scaife 2014; Roche 2013). As it turns out, there seems to be a commitment to the continuity of confabulatory phenomena in clinical and non-clinical populations. On the one hand, some scholars stress that clinical confabulation is more severe and involves a lesser degree of truthfulness (Mihailov 2016), and that it can be more debilitating to those who exhibit the symptom, “leading to estrangement from family and friends” (Wheatley 2009, 21). Importantly, however, references to confabulation in non-clinical contexts do not seem to be meant in a metaphorical fashion, but the phenomena are rather meant to mirror cases of clinical confabulation.Here, it might be useful to distinguish between different conceptualizations of continuity. First, an epistemic version of the continuity thesis would state that there is no categorical difference between the epistemic features of cognitions and thoughts in clinical and non-clinical populations. For instance, one could claim that even if non-clinical self-deception and clinical delusions represented two different kinds of psychological phenomena, these could both involve the formation of inaccurate beliefs that are resistant to counterevidence, where such shared epistemic features would then grant some continuity between normal and abnormal cognition. Second, a psychological version of the continuity thesis would state that there is no categorical difference between the kinds of cognitions and thoughts in clinical and non-clinical populations, as the same psychological phenomena occur in both contexts. One could argue, for instance, that non-clinical self-deception and clinical delusions are not in fact two different kinds of psychological phenomena, in spite of some shared epistemic features. Notably, scholars interested in non-clinical confabulation seem to interpret continuity in the latter way, pointing to either shared mechanisms or cognitive functions. For instance, Max Coltheart wrote that confabulation should be seen as “a consequence of a general property of human cognition” (2016, 62), rather than a feature of abnormal cognition.

The uses and abuses of the coherence – correspondence distinctionThe question is again whether consistency of choice, and by extension, its rationality, can be decided upon independent of context, without referring to something external to choice, such a person’s goals, values, and environment. Consider the following problem adapted from Sen (1993): At a dinner party, a fruit basket is passed around. When it reaches Mr. Polite, one apple is left in the basket. Mr. Polite decides to behave decently and picks nothing (A) rather than the apple (B). If the basket had contained another apple (C), he could reasonably have chosen B over A without violating standards of good behavior. Choosing A  over B  from the choice set {A , B } and choosing B over A from the choice set {A , B , C } violates Property Alpha, even though there is nothing irrational about Mr. Polite doing justice to his name. In fact, to avoid violating consistency, he would have to suspend his good manners. Sen (2002) concluded that the idea of internal consistency of choice “is essentially confused, and there is no way of determining whether a choice function is consistent or not without  referring to something external to choice behavior (such as objectives, values, or norms)” (pp. 121, 122). We emphasize that the term environment  needs to be added to this list—after all, the consistency of behavior is not determined by its politeness or impoliteness alone, but also by the available choice set and others’ behavior. Violating Property Alpha can be functional in social situations. Sen’s (1993) dinner party example suggests another important observation that has received little attention in the treatment of consistency, namely that behavioral inconsistencies do not imply inconsistent strategies. Since the economist Paul Samuelson pioneered the revealed preference approach  in the 1930s (e.g., Samuelson, 1938), treatments of consistency have focused on observable choice rather than on strategies producing choice. Inconsistency in behavior, however, does not necessarily mean that the person uses an inconsistent strategy (Hertwig & Gigerenzer, 2011).

Discuss an event or process from your work experience which has contributed to your personal/professional development, under the following headings:Briefly describe the event or process.How were you involved and how did you respond?What were the outcomes?What did you learn that you could realistically apply in the future?I am currently a Research Fellow at the University of Birmingham who wishes to make a career transition. One of the most important events in my personal and professional development comes from my experience in the publishing industry.As a Journal Development Specialist at Open-Access scientific publisher Frontiers, it occurred to me that whilst the company was interested in publishing scholarly content also in the humanities and social sciences, the company’s business model would be unsustainable in such fields. I flagged my concerns to the upper management and I independently offered to carry out research on new journal possibilities in the humanities and social sciences. Eventually, I pitched my business report to the CEO and other key stakeholders.The two main conclusions of my report were that i) the market would not be able to absorb high article processing charges and ii) the high presence of illegal journal article copies retrievable from academic social networks or pirate sites would make the company’s business model less likely to succeed, as scholarly content is typically already available open access. Importantly, both aspects had been mostly overlooked or underestimated.The report and its unexpected conclusions were enthusiastically received and led to several noteworthy outcomes. The company eventually decided to limit the number of journals to launch in the humanities and social sciences, to reduce the article processing charges for such fields, and to grant a higher number of fee waivers than originally planned.Moreover, from a personal perspective, this moment was of particular relevance, as it clearly showed to me how I could successfully utilize my outstanding research skills and exercise superior critical reasoning tools to make a real-world impact. This was a key lesson, and one that also led to my decision to consider an MBA to improve my chances of landing a prestigious managerial role in the Publishing Industry or a consultancy job in Intellectual Property and Science.What are your aims for your future career development?How will the Strathclyde MBA assist you in achieving your aims?In the short term, I plan to land a managerial role in the Publishing Industry or a consultancy job in Intellectual Property and Science. Yet I also have longer-term goals, and I aim to launch my own publishing company within the next five years.Pursuing an MBA at Strathclyde would improve my chances of fulfilling my professional goals and ambitions in a number of ways. Besides that obvious fact that the MBA’s triple accreditation and high position in widely renowned rankings would have a direct and positive impact on my profile’s employability and marketability, there are other key considerations in support of my application. For instance, in light of my interest in landing a consultancy job, I greatly value that you are typically able to offer consultancy opportunities for MBA participants as part of their MBA final project.But pursuing this MBA would help me accomplish also my longer-term goals. In particular, an MBA would allow me to learn not only from its excellent staff, modules and invited speakers, but also from its terrific cohort of participants. At Strathclyde, MBA participants are carefully selected leaders who bring different perspectives and come from different positions and backgrounds. This matters a lot to me. Over the past years, I have learnt how important it is to gain knowledge and skills not only during formal training, but also from more informal interactions with bright and competent peers. For instance, some colleagues of mine have already launched their startups, in some cases joining business incubators such as the Alchemist Accelerator, and they have provided me with helpful insight into various aspects of business development. During daily interactions with other MBA participants, I plan to gather knowledge, contacts and information that will prove useful in developing my own company over the next few years.Describe how your work experience could be used as a source of information for your learning and for contribution to group discussions.My experience in academia and in the scientific publishing industry will be particularly useful during group discussions. As it turns out, the scientific publishing industry is peculiar in many ways. Whilst a traditional publisher needs to pay writers for their articles and to employ editors to commission and assess such articles, scientific publishers can avoid such costs. This is because researchers write their articles and give them to publishers for free, and researchers who work on a volunteer basis do most of the editorial work. Hence, profit margins are extremely high in this industry.This situation is typically mocked outside academia. To be fair, academics typically complain about the proliferation of unsustainable or exploitative business models in the context of scholarly publishing, but they have so far struggled to find effective solutions to the problems they envisage.Recently, some attempts have been made to propose new business models in the industry. In the case of magazines and non-scholarly publishers, it is typically the reader who pays to access information and content, and this publishing model has also been popular in scholarly publishing.  The recent so-called open access revolution encourages a shift, however, from a “reader-pays” to an “author-pays” model.I worked as Journal Development Specialist at Frontiers, an open access publisher based in Switzerland and with the mission to revolutionize scientific communication. As most open access publishers, Frontiers would also levy a charge at the front end of the publishing process that has to be paid by authors, their institutions or research funders. It is controversial, however, the extent to which these recently suggested business models could actually be sustainable and convincing in the long run. For instance, “author-pays” open access can collapse into predatory “pay to publish” publishing, where quality control is no longer incentivized.Moreover, several relevant questions have not as yet been properly addressed. For instance, should academic and scholarly publishers pay research authors and referees for their work? During this MBA I wish to acquire skills, tools and knowledge to successfully address these and other key questions and challenges in the publishing industry. My goal is to land a managerial role in the Publishing Industry or a consultancy job in Intellectual Property and Science after my MBA, and to launch my own publishing company within the next five years. I feel that I would be able to benefit from the insights of the MBA staff and other participants, while at the same time offering interesting and challenging case studies and proposals during group discussions.