The SuperCam instrument [1,2] onboard Mars2020 disposes of a variety of active and passive techniques, including passive spectroscopy in the 0.40-0.85 (VIS) and 1.3 to 2.6 microns (IR, [3,4]) wavelength ranges. Since the landing on Mars of Perseverance in February 2021, Supercam has acquired numerous observations of its near and distant environment, exploring the geological and mineralogical context of Jezero crater. In addition, several measurements were devoted to probing the atmosphere surrounding the Perseverance rover. The technique of using sky spectra in passive mode, known as “passive sky”, has already been demonstrated with ChemCam on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover [4]. SuperCam provides a superset of the ChemCam capabilities used in [4], and in particular adds a near-infrared component that includes absorption and scattering characteristics of key gases and aerosols/clouds. “Passive sky” measurements have typically been performed every other week to allow a consistent monitoring of the seasonal evolution of the main quantities (CO2, O2, H2O, CO, aerosols/clouds). Particular attention was given to joint measurements of O2 and CO, as they appear as key components of the Martian chemical cycle and have never been measured together at the same time on the surface of Mars. As the 2 μm wavelength region is used for the first time at the surface of Mars, it enables the detection of CO (around 2.35 μm). CO possesses a small absorption that has made it difficult to identify in SuperCam spectra so far. An overview of SuperCam’s progress to date in its attempt to characterize the Martian atmosphere at Jezero will be presented. References : [1] Wiens, R.C., et al. , 2021. Space Sci Rev 217, 4, [2] Maurice, S., et al., 2021. Space Sci Rev 217, 47, [3] Royer, C., et al.., 2020. Review of Scientific Instruments 91, 063105, [4] Fouchet, T., et al., 2021, Icarus, submitted. [5] McConnochie T. H et al., 2018. Icarus 307, 294

In principle, a goal of any regional seismic network (RSN) is simple - detect and review seismicity in the network’s region of interest. Vigorous aftershock sequences however present a unique challenge to an RSN’s mission in that they can overwhelm automated real-time and analyst-driven post-processing systems. This inundation with seismicity can the lead to earthquake catalogs that are incomplete and erroneous in the area around the aftershock sequence. In response to this challenge, this abstract explores integrating machine learning as a tool to expedite the University of Utah Seismogram Station’s (UUSS)’s response to the September, 2017 Soda Springs event in southeast Idaho. In the months following the event the UUSS was able to locate over 1000 aftershocks and was catalog complete to approximately 2.5 M_L. Owing to the fact that a temporary deployment of 6 six-channel and 2 strong-motion instruments were deployed to the area shortly after the event, it is anticipated that many more high-quality locations can be obtained without resorting to template matching. Therefore, it is our goal to attempt to recover the existing UUSS catalog with machine learning enabled workflows that can produce analyst-grade picks for location and subsequent magnitude estimation. Should this be successful then the anticipated consequence is that analysts can quickly screen and approve more events and by extension lower the network’s magnitude completeness during the aftershock sequence.

Terrestrial vegetation is known to be an important sink for carbon dioxide (CO2). However, fluxes to and from vegetation are often not accounted for when studying anthropogenic CO2 emissions in urban areas. This project seeks to quantify urban biogenic fluxes in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area located in Southern Ontario, Canada. Toronto is Canada’s most populated city but also has a large amount of green-space, covering approximately 13 % of the city. In addition, vegetation is not evenly distributed throughout the region. We therefore expect biogenic fluxes to play an important role in the spatial patterns of CO2 concentrations and the overall local carbon budget. In order to fully understand biogenic fluxes they can be partitioned into the amount of CO2 sequestered via photosynthesis, gross primary productivity (GPP), and the amount respired by vegetation, ecosystem respiration (Reco). Solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) measured from space has been shown to be a valuable proxy for photosynthesis and thus can be used to estimate GPP. Vegetation models, including the Urban Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (UrbanVPRM) and the SIF for Modelling Urban biogenic Fluxes (SMUrF) model, have also been used to estimate both GPP and Reco In this study we compare modelled and SIF-derived biogenic CO2 fluxes at a 500 m by 500 m resolution, to ground-based flux tower measurements in Southern Ontario to determine how well these methods estimate biogenic CO2 fluxes. This study works towards determining the importance of biogenic fluxes in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. Furthermore, the results of this work may inform policy makers and city planners on how urban vegetation affects CO2 concentrations and patterns within cities.

Dob’s Linn (Scotland) is a location that has significantly influenced our understanding of how life evolved over the Ordovician to early Silurian. The current chronostratigraphic boundary between the Ordovician and Silurian periods is a Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) at Dob’s Linn calibrated to 443.8±1.5 Ma, partly based on biostratigraphic markers, radiometric ages, and statistical modeling. Graptolites are used here as relative dating markers. We dated hundreds of zircon grains extracted from defined metabentonites from six horizons exposed at Dob’s Linn using Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). Each zircon was imaged using cathodoluminescence, and most show igneous zoning with minimal alteration. Sample locations range from 42 meters above to 5 meters below the recognized GSSP for the Ordovician-Silurian. Samples were responsibly collected and analyzed for paleontology and geochemistry in other work. Overall, many 238U-206Pb zircon ages from the section are significantly younger than expected. The youngest zircon in sample DL7, located 5 meters below the GSSP, yielded a 238U-206Pb age of 402±12 Ma (±2s, 5% disc). Nineteen spots on zircons from this sample are younger than the presently assigned GSSP age, including more concordant results of 426±8 Ma (0.8% disc) and 435±5 Ma (0.2% disc). The youngest zircon in sample 19DL12, < 1 m below the GSSP, is 377±8 Ma (2% disc) with a more concordant age of 443±7 Ma (0.6% disc). A sample located directly on the GSSP (19DL09) yields 327±5 Ma (0.8% disc). Eight spots on zircons from this sample are also younger than the presently assigned GSSP age. We also dated two samples (DL24 and BRS23) 8 meters above the GSSP, and the youngest, most concordant zircon ages in these samples are 400±11 Ma (5% disc) and 421±9 Ma (0.4% disc), respectively. Overall, the U-Pb ages would re-assign the Dob’s Linn chronostratigraphic section to Silurian-Devonian. The young age results could be attributed to Pb loss due to hydrothermal alteration during the Acadian and Alleghenian orogenies. Future work will implement Chemical Abrasion Isotope Dilution Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) to obtain accurate U-Pb dating and evaluate the potential effects of Pb loss.

Understanding onset of droughts and its potential linkage to resulting responses like severity (deficit volume) is crucial for providing timely information related to drought sectors including the cultivation planning and monitoring crop productivity. Using high-quality daily observed streamflow records from 82 medium-to-large sized catchments over (tropical) peninsular India, we show that the variability in onset timing drives the severity of hydrological droughts. The strength of onset timing-severity relationships using observed records indicate seasonality of rainfall and catchment characteristics mainly modulate hydrological drought responses in peninsular India, which is not readily apparent from land-surface model simulations. The observed trend for mean onset of drought depicts delayed occurrence for more than half of the catchments. Around one-third of the catchments shows a stronger non-linear significant dependency (>0.7) between severity and onset of drought. The findings of the study highlight the need for accounting feedback between drought onset and severity and their concurrent changes for seasonal-to-sub-seasonal predictability of droughts; and contributes to discussions on building resilience to extreme droughts in a changing climate.

The overturning tropical Pacific circulation known as the Walker circulation embodies complex interactions between large-scale circulations, deep and shallow convection, stratocumulus clouds, and microphysical cloud processes. The large and multi-scale nature of the Walker circulation has made high resolution modeling costly, while disentangling the relevant circulations and processes in a global model with more parameterizations is often challenging. This work uses the framework of the Walker Circulation as a unifying experiment for both high-resolution and global models with the goal of identifying how deep tropical convective heating and low-level clouds interact with and are influenced by the circulations in which they are embedded. A high resolution model with explicit convection (1km and 2km grid-spacing) is used to examine the system free of the complications inherent in convective parameterizations. The same model is also used at GCM-like resolutions with parameterized convection (25km and 100km grid-spacing) to gain insight into how the clouds and circulations interact in a GCM configuration. We define the idealized Walker circulation with a prescribed sea surface temperature dipole pattern, no rotation, uniform insolation, fully interactive radiation, and a channel domain (100km x 4000km). All simulations use the the same nonhydrostatic dynamical core (FV3) with the physics based on those in the AM4 GFDL atmospheric model. We find large differences in the total condensate between the high-resolution model and the GCM with the high-resolution model tending to have less low-level condensate but more condensate in the deep convective regions. This is reflected in the relative humidity fields as well. The parameterized entrainment of deep convection and the feedbacks of low-level tropical clouds are both leading factors contributing to the large spread of the climate sensitivity. With this in mind experiments are performed with the GCM in which the lateral mixing rate of deep convective plumes is varied. In addition, the detailed representation of cloud fraction between the two models is investigated. Our goal is to determine to what extent deep tropical convection can influence remote low-level clouds in regions with a subsiding free troposphere.

Little is known of the structure and seismic nature of icy satellites, planetary bodies that have an outer shell of ice instead of a rocky crust. One such body, Saturn's moon Titan, is unique because of its thick atmosphere, hydrologic cycle similar to Earth's, and salty subsurface ocean. The Dragonfly mission, set to launch in 2026, will use a robotic rotorcraft to transport various instruments, including a seismometer, to the Shangri-La dune field on Titan. Until then, Titan's seismic regime can be estimated by simulating wave propagation through assumed layering using source models. Ridge belts with low slope angles suggest fold-and-thrust belts possibly caused by fluid overpressures in Titan's icy shell. These have been observed in synthetic aperture radar images from Cassini and may be a likely site for Titan-quakes. Synthetic seismograms are calculated for Titan-quakes using Instaseis, a Python-based software sourced by Green's function databases computed by the axisymmetric spectral element method. Back-azimuth angles are calculated for different source-receiver configurations. Very high amplitude waves are interpreted as surface waves. The PP wave is the first arrival at distances greater than 35 degrees. At 45 degrees, S waves are not distinguishable.

We present preliminary results from an electrokinetic laboratory rock characterization approach, which uses electroosmosis and streaming potential to estimate permeability. The device has two modes. In its first mode it measures differential pressure across a sample while applying electric current or acoustic pressure, while in its second mode it measures voltage across the sample when applying electric current or acoustic pressure. The two modes result in estimates of the electrokinetic coupling coefficients, which can jointly be used to estimate the permeability of the sample. Our collaboration includes analytical and numerical approaches simulating aspects of the experiments being carried out in the laboratory at Sandia. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Accurate and seamless coastal water level observations are crucial for monitoring climate change, mean sea level, and storm surge. Although the water level changes have been measured using local measurement instruments at coastal sites for centuries, the spatial distribution of these sites is typically limited to locations with infrastructure. For example, Alaska has significant gaps in the spatially varying tidal information so that more supports are needed for coastal mapping and storm surge preparedness. GNSS-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) is being investigated as tool for water level monitoring. By calculating the phase delay of the GNSS radio signals reflected by the water surface, the temporal variation of the water level can be observed. The advantage of this system is twofold: 1) It is non-contact and measures water levels as it is based on remote sensing technique. 2) resulting water level measurements are tied directly to a global reference frame that it significantly contributes to the consistent vertical datum. In this study, we processed data from three Continuously Operating Reference Stations in California (CACC), Louisiana (CALC), and Alaska (AT01), which are operated by NGS and UNAVCO. The resulting water levels were compared with observations from stations in the NOAA’s National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON). The CALC station was selected specifically for performance evaluation during hurricane Harvey. The GNSS-R results show a strong agreement with the published observations and datums from the NWLON stations. The peak storm surge induced by hurricane Harvey is clearly observed in the data from CALC. Tidal datums computed from CALC data are within 6cm of published. Data from the AT01, located in St. Michael Alaska, show tidal characteristics not represented in the published predictions, which are based on data collected between 1891 and 1899. The AC01 results are very encouraging considering the expected challenges due to limited GNSS observations and strong ionospheric activities in high latitudes. The results from this study show many promising applications for GNSS-R derived water levels, such as tidal datum determination, predictions and validation of vertical datum separation models.

Thousands of exoplanets have been discovered in last two decades, including a sample of rocky worlds in the habitable zones of their host stars. Assessing their habitability will rely on the observation and characterization of atmospheres of these distant worlds. Laboratory simulations can provide critical information for atmospheric observations of exoplanets. Thus, we conducted a series of laboratory experiments that simulated a broad range of atmospheres in cooler (<800 K), smaller (<0.3× Jupiter’s mass) exoplanets. We investigated three types of atmospheric metallicities, 100× solar (H2-dominated), 1,000× (H2O-dominated), and 10,000× (CO2-dominated) at three temperatures, 300, 400, and 600 K using the PHAZER (Planetary Haze Research) chamber at Johns Hopkins University (He et al. 2017) with one of two energy sources (AC glow plasma and UV photons). We find that all simulated atmospheres resulted in haze formation with both energy sources, but the production rates vary a lot with different conditions (He et al. 2018a, 2018b; Hörst et al. 2018). The resulting haze particles can affect the atmospheric and surface temperature of the exoplanets, and their potential habitability. We monitored the gas phase compositional changes with a quadrupole mass spectrometry during the experiments and characterized the resulted haze particles. We find that the organic molecules are produced in both gas and solid phases, which could provide a source of organic material to the surface for life to arise. We identified potential precursors (C2H2, HCN, CH2NH, HCHO, etc.) for haze formation, among which HCHO and HCN are also important prebiotic precursors for products of biological significance (sugars, amino acids, and nucleobases). The laboratory results increase our understanding the habitability of exoplanets and can help guide and interpret current and future atmospheric observations of exoplanets. Ref: He, C., Hörst, S. M., et al. 2017, APJL, 841, L31 He, C., Hörst, S. M., Lewis, N. K., et al. 2018, ApJL, 856, L3 He, C., Hörst, S. M., Lewis, N. K., et al. 2018, AJ, 156, 38 Hörst, S. M., He, C., Lewis, N. K., et al. 2018, Nat. Astron., 2, 303

For youth with limited role models in the STEM fields, and restricted summer research opportunities resulting from a lack of financial resources and academic connections, the opportunity to participate in academically connected, community based science research programs can be incredibly empowering. Providing these opportunities is critically important but it takes purposeful work, persistent outreach and strong community networks. We note that while providing these opportunities is incredibly rewarding, but there is a lot of work both up front and ongoing. This work is itself rewarding when networks are humming and enthusiasm for involvement is high, but it can be challenging when ceilings are hit and walls seem to arise unexpectedly. “Early Engagement in Research: Broadening participation through engagement in authentic science research” builds a regional network of summer research experiences for high school students underrepresented in STEM, starting from a successful model that has provided high school summer field research opportunities for New York City youth for over a decade (Secondary School Field Research Program). The program is developed around regional partnerships between various combinations of academic institutions and research centers, community environmental and education centers, state cooperative extensions, high schools and school networks, state and local park systems and land management groups. Each location has a unique approach, but all include some similar attributes. Each tackles an authentic science research issue that affects the local community such as microbiology in the local streams and microplastics in the local bays and biology, and each includes peer and near peer mentoring for the students along with a scientist mentor. Encouraging professional development of each student is central to the program. Technical instruction includes the use of scientific instruments and equipment, data recording and interpretation. Professional discussions include how to successfully read and dissect a science journal article, how to create and present a science poster and most importantly how build a network for themselves in STEM, and how to help us work with them to support the diversity that is needed for all of science to be inclusive and ultimately meet the needs of our future.

We perform numerical simulations of the TRAPPIST-1 system of seven exoplanets orbiting a nearby M dwarf, starting with a previously suggested stable configuration. The long-term stability of this configuration is confirmed, but the motion of planets is found to be chaotic. The eccentricity values are found to vary within finite ranges. The rates of tidal dissipation and tidal evolution of orbits are estimated, assuming an Earth-like rheology for the planets. We find that under this assumption, the planets b, d, and e were captured in the 3:2 or higher spin–orbit resonances during the initial spin-down, but slipped further down into the 1:1 resonance. Depending on its rheology, the innermost planet b may be captured in a stable pseudosynchronous rotation. Nonsynchronous rotation ensures higher levels of tidal dissipation and internal heating. The positive feedback between the viscosity and the dissipation rate—and the ensuing runaway heating—are terminated by a few self-regulation processes. When the temperature is high and the viscosity is low enough, the planet spontaneously leaves the 3:2 resonance. Further heating is stopped either by passing the peak dissipation or by the emergence of partial melt in the mantle. In the post-solidus state, the tidal dissipation is limited to the levels supported by the heat transfer efficiency. The tides on the host star are unlikely to have had a significant dynamical impact. The tides on the synchronized inner planets tend to reduce these planets’ orbital eccentricity, possibly contributing thereby to the system’s stability.

According to the concept of the seismic cycle, earthquakes result from the strain accumulation over a variable decade to millennial period, i.e., the interseismic stage, followed by a sudden stress release, i.e., the coseismic stage, eventually evolving in the postseismic stage. Common analytical and numerical approaches simulate interseismic, coseismic and postseismic stages independently. Often, coseismic models constrain the slip of single or multiple planar sources to fit the available geodetic and InSAR measurements to reproduce fault geometry, slip and regional deformation, regardless the origin of the interseismic forces. We developed a numerical model linking the ongoing interseismic viscous deformation at depth with the coseismic brittle episodic behavior of the upper crust. Our model assumes a brittle upper crust where the fault is locked, and a ductile lower crust, where the fault is steadily shearing. This approach is developed to model typical extensional and compressional earthquakes in Italy including the forces acting during the interseismic period, i.e., the lithostatic load and the horizontal stress field. We adjusted the setup of our model to simulate the interseismic, coseismic and postseismic phases of three seismic events in Italy, two extensional (2009 L’Aquila Mw 6.1 and 2016 Amatrice-Norcia Mw 6.5) and one contractional (2012 Emilia Mw 6). The results of our analysis, compared with the available geodetic and InSAR data, show that the proposed numerical model can reproduce the seismic cycle associated with the investigated events. The modeling provides evidence of interseismic dilatancy above the brittle-ductile transition at the bottom of the locked fault plane in the extensional tectonic setting; coseismic fault motion is triggered by the hangingwall gravitational collapse that recovers most of the interseismic dilatancy formed almost orthogonal to the fault. Vice versa, in contractional tectonic settings, the interseismic horizontal stress accumulates elastic energy in the crustal volume above the bottom of the locked fault; coseismic deformation recovers the elastic energy stored in the hangingwall. The two different settings generate a deformation in favor of gravity in extensional tectonic environments and against gravity in contractional tectonic environments.

Groundwater resources of the Southern High Plains/Ogallala Aquifer in Texas and New Mexico are being depleted due to groundwater mining for irrigation. Inevitably, resource depletion leads to calls for water conservation in agriculture. Conservation can take two forms: a reduction in irrigation depth, and a reduction in irrigated area, which in economics are termed the “intensive margin” and “extensive margin” of agricultural water use. In the Southern High Plains, we find different effects on water table elevation arising from these two approaches. This research presents a coupled model of landscape and groundwater hydrology. Model results indicate that a 50% reduction in irrigation water application would limit loss in irrigable area to about 1% of existing irrigable land per year. This is approximately half the rate of depletion from a ‘business as usual’ scenario. Relative benefits of each conservation approach varied: areas with a high density of irrigated land experienced greater benefits from a reduction in irrigation depth, whereas reducing irrigated acreage maintained water tables more in areas with a low density of irrigated land. This project demonstrates that strategies for irrigation water management can support conservation goals. However, model results also demonstrated that even a 50% reduction in irrigation water use –which would be politically and economically unfeasible in Texas and New Mexico – would still result in overall depletion of the regional aquifer.

On September 10, 2017, Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys as a category 3 storm. Storm surge inundation heights in the lower Keys were in excess of 2m. In this study, we investigate the effect of the Hurricane Irma storm surge on the freshwater lens of Big Pine Key, FL using Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) on three transect lines of 222 m, 250 m and 278 m length. Two transects, B1 and B3, were situated near the shoreline and crossed the lateral boundary of the previously mapped freshwater lens whereas, the third transect, B2, was inland in the interior of the lens. All transects experienced storm surge flooding from Irma. In this paper, we compare ERT imaging results of baseline data collected 6 years before Irma (November 2011) with data collected 3-4 months (November, 2017/January, 2018) and 8 months (May 2018) after the storm. The data were inverted using a difference inversion algorithm which uses the previous inversion results as a starting model. The resistivity models were then converted to salinity by applying an electrical formation factor. For the November 2017/January 2018 data, all profiles showed low resistivity/high salinity zones in the upper 2 m corresponding to saline water emplaced on top of the freshwater lens by the storm surge. The increase in salinity is most pronounced in the low elevation portions of the transects. On transects B1 and B2, the high salinity zones are mostly continuous. However, on the higher elevation sections of transect line B3, the high salinity zone is broken up and appears to be moving downward through the freshwater lens. The nearshore transects, B1 and B3 also show a greater amount of saltwater intrusion adjacent to the shoreline at depths below 5m. The May 2018 data were collected at the end of the climatological dry season but were collected immediately after 2 weeks of intense precipitation. These data show some limited recovery of the freshwater lens. This recovery is most pronounced in the lower elevation portions of the transects where standing water was observed during data collection. This suggests that both the impact of storm surge and the freshwater recovery due to precipitation are most pronounced in low elevation regions where both saline and fresh water can collect at the surface.

The Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia, whose inter-annual variability in local precipitation has resulted in droughts and floods that lead to economic and food insecurity, is the area of interest for our NSF-PIRE project, which aims to develop novel forecast technologies to mitigate the stresses to local communities. As part of the PIRE project, a Citizen Science Initiative (PIRE CSI) was established in June 2017, a project that trains high school students in hydrologic data collection under the guidance of classroom teachers and graduate students and professors from Bahir Dar University in four watersheds of interest, located south of Lake Tana, Ethiopia. Four MSc graduate students were selected from Bahir Dar University and trained nine high school students who were nominated taking into account gender and the proximity of their schools to the watersheds. High school students are currently collecting soil moisture data using TDR, river stage measurements using optical levels and groundwater levels using shallow water level meters. The data collection is supported by an app (B-WING), developed specifically for the needs of the project. College-ready activities are being planned for the high school students, i.e. inviting them to Bahir Dar University to analyze some of the data, present their work at a workshop, and familiarize themselves with the university experience. Recently, the PIRE CSI was extended to involve local farmers as “citizen scientists”, collecting soil moisture data using low-cost, soil moisture sensors developed in-house at the University of Connecticut, that have been installed in 12 locations and two soil depths (20 cm and 40 cm). The collected data will be used for the initialization and validation of the hydrological models developed in the region. The PIRE CSI promotes the empowerment of local communities and establishes long-lasting partnerships between scientists and stakeholders. It is believed that the co-generation of knowledge may contribute to higher rates of forecast adaption by the local farmers and may trigger the student’s interest in STEM and encourage their uptake of scientific careers. Acknowledgment: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1545874.

Continuous evolution of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) provides the opportunity of using observations from multi-GNSS constellations for geodetic applications. It is a well-known fact that the use of multi-GNSS observations improves the robustness and reliability of the position estimates while providing enhanced spatial coverage due to increased number of available satellites. The combined use of the ground-based observations from GPS and GLONASS, for example, significantly adds to the coverage in both azimuth and elevation of the ground-based stations. The aim of this study is, firstly, to assess the geographical variations in the improvement (of position estimates) offered by the use of multi-GNSS observations, and secondly, to assess implications of multi-GNSS position estimates for improvements and robustness of the terrestrial reference frame. A GPS-only double-differenced positioning solution for a global network of stations will be used as a reference in this study. Furthermore, two precise point positioning (PPP) solutions i.e. one with GPS-only and one with GPS+GLONASS observations, will be computed and compared to the reference solution. To study the geographical variation, the differences between the simulated and reference North/East/Up components will be analyzed as a function of latitude. Eventually, the various positioning solutions will be analyzed in terms of their application in terrestrial reference frame definition.

Harmful algal blooms (HAB; Karenia brevis) occurrences have been reported from the coastal waters of Charlotte County in southwest Florida. We developed multivariate regression models that relate reported (January 2010 to October 2017) bloom occurrences to observations extracted from archival remote sensing data (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer [MODIS]) to accomplish the following: (1) identify factors controlling HAB propagation, (2) predict algal bloom distribution (same day, and 1, 2, and 3 days in advance), and (3) develop fully automated system for data distribution via a web-based GIS platform. These tasks were accomplished through three main steps: (1) automatic downloading and processing of daily MODIS products using SeaDAS software to extract relevant remote sensing variables (euphotic depth, wind direction, ocean chlorophyll three-band algorithm for MODIS [Chlorophyll a OC3M], wind speed, chlorophyll a Generalized Inherent Optical Property [GIOP], Fluorescence Line Height [Flh], diffused attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance at 490 nanometer [Kd_490], chlorophyll a Garver-Siegel- Maritorena [GSM], Turbidity index, Particulate backscattering coefficient at 547 nm [bbp_547_giop] and sea surface temperature [SST]), (2) development and calibration of multivariate regression models using relevant remote sensing and static variable (distance from river mouth, bathymetry) inputs for same day mapping and forecasting of HAB occurrences, and (3) automated posting of model outputs on a web-based GIS (http://mgs.geology.wmich.edu/bloom/). Findings include: (1) the variables most indicative of the timing of bloom propagation are bathymetry, euphotic depth, wind direction, sea surface temperature [SST], chlorophyll a [OC3M] and distance from the river mouth, and (2) the model predictions were successful at 90% for same day mapping and 65%, 72% and 71% for the one, two and three days in advance predictions, respectively.