Volcanogenic tsunami and wave hazard remains less understood than that of other tsunami sources. Volcanoes can generate waves in a multitude of ways, including subaqueous explosions. Recent events, including a highly explosive eruption at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai and subsequent tsunami in January 2022, have reinforced the necessity to explore and quantify volcanic tsunami sources. We utilise a non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical method to simulate 20 scenarios of sublacustrine explosive eruptions under Lake Taupō, New Zealand, across five locations and four eruption sizes. Waves propagate around the entire lake within 15 minutes, and there is a minimum explosive size required to generate significant waves (positive amplitudes incident on foreshore of >1 m) from the impulsive displacement of water from the eruption itself. This corresponds to a mass eruption rate of 5.8x10^7 kg s^-1, or VEI 5 equivalent. Inundation is mapped across five built areas and becomes significant near shore when considering only the two largest sizes, above VEI 5, which preferentially impact areas of low-gradient run-up. In addition, novel hydrographic output is produced showing the impact of incident waves on the Waikato river inlet draining the lake, and is potentially useful for future structural impact analysis. Waves generated from these explosive source types are highly dispersive, resulting in hazard rapidly diminishing with distance from the source. With improved computational efficiency, a probabilistic study could be formulated and other, potentially more significant, volcanic source mechanisms should be investigated.
In northern Fennoscandia, semi-alluvial boulder-bed channels with coarse glacial legacy sediment are abundant, and due to widespread anthropogenic manipulation during timber-floating, unimpacted reference reaches are rare. The landscape context of these semi-alluvial rapids— with numerous mainstem lakes that buffer high flows and sediment connectivity in addition to a regional low sediment yield— contribute to low amounts of fine sediment and incompetent flows to transport boulders. To determine the morphodynamics of semi-alluvial rapids and potential self-organization of sediment with multiple high flows, a flume experiment was designed and carried out to mimic conditions in semi-alluvial rapids in northern Fennoscandia. Two slope setups (2% and 5%) were used to model a range of flows (Q1 (summer high flow), Q2, Q10 & Q50) in a 8 x 1.1 m flume with a sediment distribution analogous to field conditions; bed topography was measured using structure-from-motion photogrammetry after each flow to obtain DEMs. No classic steep coarse-bed channel bedforms (e.g., step-pools) developed. However, similarly to boulder-bed channels with low relative submergence, at Q10 and Q50 flows, sediment deposited upstream of boulders and scoured downstream. Because the Q50 flow was not able to re-work the channel by disrupting grain-interlocking from preceding lower flows, transporting boulders, or forming channel-spanning boulders, the channel-forming discharge is larger than the Q50. These results have implications for restoration of gravel spawning beds in northern Fennoscandia and highlight the importance of large grains in understanding channel morphodynamics.
Construction with freeboard – vertical height of a structure above the minimum required – is commonly accepted as a sound investment for flood hazard mitigation. However, determining the optimal height of freeboard poses a major decision problem. This research introduces a life-cycle benefit-cost analysis (LCBCA) approach for optimizing freeboard height for a new, single-family residence, while incorporating uncertainty, and, in the case of insured homes, considering the costs from losses, insurance, and freeboard (if any) to the homeowner and National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) separately. Using a hypothetical, case study home in Metairie, Louisiana, results show that adding 2 ft. of freeboard at the time of construction might be considered the optimal option given that it yields the highest net benefit, but the highest net benefit-cost ratio occurs for the 1 ft. freeboard. Even if flood loss reduction is not considered when adding freeboard, the savings in annual insurance premiums alone are sufficient to recover the construction costs paid by the homeowner if at least one foot of freeboard is included at construction. Collectively, these results based on conservative assumptions suggest that at the time of construction, even a small amount of freeboard provides a huge savings for the homeowner and (especially) for the financially-strapped NFIP. For community planners, the results suggest that wise planning with reasonable expectations on the front end makes for a more sustainable community.
Deformation bands are the main structural element of fault damage zones within sandstone reservoirs. The prediction of band occurrence and their petrophysical impacts is based largely on the understanding that the yield and deformation mechanism of sandstones is primarily controlled by porosity and mean grain size. Whilst this is supported by field observations within aeolian successions, where bands are predictably favoured within coarse-grained, high-porosity sandstones, the prediction of deformation bands within texturally complex mixed aeolian-fluvial reservoirs on the basis of porosity and grain size alone, may be unreliable. The effect of grain sorting on the mechanical behaviour of sandstones is not well understood, although it is generally regarded that deformation band formation is inhibited in texturally immature sandstones with a poor level of sorting. We examine the effect of sorting on both the inelastic yield of sandstones, the dominant deformation mechanism by which yield occurs, and the textural and microstructural changes with deformation, using a series of triaxial experiments on unconsolidated quartz sands. Hydrostatic experiments were conducted on over-consolidated samples of very well- to moderately-sorted sands with a range of mean grain sizes from 128-700µm. We report accurate prediction of P* using porosity x grain radius, with P* reduced with decreased sorting. Constant displacement rate triaxial experiments are performed at up to 10% axial strain to explore yield behaviour in both the brittle dilatant regime and shear-enhanced compactive regime. Experiments were repeated with systematically varied grain sorting whilst mean grain size and porosity was maintained. The textural and petrophysical changes are observed and quantified using pore volumometry, back scattered electron microscopy, digital image analysis and point counting. Results show that in well-sorted sands, localised cataclasis and deformation band formation is the dominant deformation mechanism. In poorly-sorted sands deformation occurs through a combination of grain boundary sliding and randomly distributed pockets of cataclasis. Using grain size analysis we identify greater levels of cataclasis and production of fines in well-sorted sands, resulting in permeability reduction up to one order of magnitude more than that of poorly-sorted sands deformed at the same conditions. We hypothesise that band formation within poorly sorted sandstones may be promoted by the formation and propagation of bands in adjacent well sorted sandstones where band formation is favoured. These results give insight into the deformation, textural changes, and permeability impact of both unconsolidated and consolidated siliciclastic reservoirs.
New geophysical data from Antarctica’s Ross Embayment reveal the structure and subglacial geology of extended continental crust beneath the Ross Ice Shelf. We use airborne magnetic data from the ROSETTA-Ice Project to locate the contact between magnetic basement and overlying sediments. We delineate a broad, segmented basement high with thin (0-500m) non-magnetic sedimentary cover which trends northward into the Ross Sea’s Central High. Before subsiding in the Oligocene, this feature likely facilitated early glaciation in the region and subsequently acted as a pinning point and ice flow divide. Flanking the high are wide sedimentary basins, up to 3700m deep, which parallel the Ross Sea basins and likely formed during Cretaceous-Neogene intracontinental extension. NW-SE basins beneath the Siple Coast grounding zone, by contrast, are narrow, deep, and elongate. They suggest tectonic divergence upon active faults that may localize geothermal heat and/or groundwater flow, both important components of the subglacial system.
Earth’s internal heat drives its dynamic engine, causing mantle convection, plate tectonics, and the geodynamo. These renewing and protective processes, which make Earth habitable, are fueled by a primordial (kinetic) and radiogenic heat. For the past two decades, particle physicists have measured the flux of geoneutrinos, electron antineutrinos emitted during β − decay. These ghost-like particles provide a direct measure of the amount of heat producing elements (HPE: Th & U) in the Earth and in turn define the planet’s absolute concentration of the refractory elements. The geoneutrino flux has contributions from the lithosphere and mantle. Detector sensitivity follows a 1/r 2 (source detector separation distance) dependence. Accordingly, an accurate geologic model of the Near-Field Lithosphere (NFL, closest 500 km) surrounding each experiment is required to define the mantle’s contribution. Because of its proximity to the detector and enrichment in HPEs, the local lithosphere contributes ∼50% of the signal and has the greatest effect on interpreting the mantle’s signal. We re-analyzed the upper crustal compositional model used by Agostini et al. (2020) for the Borexino experiment. We documented the geology of the western Near-Field region as rich in potassic volcanism, including some centers within 50 km of the detector. In contrast, the Agostini study did not include these lithologies and used only a HPE-poor, carbonate-rich, model for upper crustal rocks in the surrounding ∼150 km of the Borexino experiment. Consequently, we report 3× higher U content for the local upper crust, which produces a 200% decrease in Earth’s radiogenic heat budget, when compared to their study. Results from the KamLAND and Borexino geoneutrino experiments are at odds with one another and predict mantle compositional heterogeneity that is untenable. Combined analyses of the KamLAND and Borexino experiments using our revised local models strongly favor an Earth with ∼20 TW present-day total radiogenic power. The next generation of geoneutrino detectors (SNO+, counting; and JUNO, under construction) will better constrain the HPE budget of the Earth.
A simple yet flexible and robust algorithm is described for fully partitioning an arbitrary dataset into compact, non-overlapping groups or classes, sorted by size, based entirely on a pairwise similarity matrix and a user-specified similarity threshold. Unlike many clustering algorithms, there is no assumption that natural clusters exist in the dataset, though clusters, when present, may be preferentially assigned to one or more classes. The method also does not require data objects to be compared within any coordinate system but rather permits the user to define pairwise similarity using almost any conceivable criterion. The method therefore lends itself to certain geoscientific applications for which conventional clustering methods are unsuited, including two non-trivial and distinctly different datasets presented as examples. In addition to identifying large classes containing numerous similar dataset members, it is also well-suited for isolating rare or anomalous members of a dataset. The method is inductive, in that prototypes identified in representative subset of a larger dataset can be used to classify the remainder.
The driving processes responsible for producing the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, the Large Igneous Province associated with end-Triassic rifting of Pangea, remain largely debated. Because their compositions encompass most of the Central Atlantic basalt spectrum, tholeiites from southern Eastern North America are considered pivotal for identifying magma origins. New 176Hf/177Hf measurements for 201 Ma Eastern North American tholeiites dominantly record a local petrogenetic history. Their εHf ratios, corrected to an emplacement age of 201 Ma (-7.85 to +5.86), form a positive but shallowly sloped array slightly deviating from the terrestrial array on a εHf vs. εNd diagram. Comparison of 176Hf/177Hf to other isotope ratios and trace elements helps to rule out several petrogenetic scenarios, particularly mixing of melts from global depleted or enriched mantle components. In contrast, partial melting of subduction-metasomatized mantle can explain the parental magma composition for southern Eastern North America. Such metasomatism likely occurred during Paleozoic subduction around Pangea and may have been dominated by sediment-derived fluid reactions. The observed 176Hf/177Hf vs. 143Nd/144Nd array may reflect subsequent assimilation of lower continental crust, perhaps together with limited direct melting of recycled continental crust in the asthenosphere. The proposed recycling scenario does not specifically support or preclude a mantle plume origin for the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, but instead points toward the presence of a distinct local mantle source and crustal assimilation processes during magma transport. Detailed understanding of these local effects is needed in order to more accurately understand the origins of Large Igneous Provinces.
Water volume estimates of shallow desert lakes are the basis for water balance calculations, important both for water resource management and paleohydrology/climatology. Water volumes are typically inferred from bathymetry mapping; however, being shallow, ephemeral and remote, bathymetric surveys are scarce in such lakes. We propose a new, remote-sensing based, method to derive the bathymetry of such lakes using the relation between water occurrence, during >30-yr of optical satellite data, and accurate elevation measurements from the new Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2). We demonstrate our method at three locations where we map bathymetries with ~0.3 m error. This method complements other remotely sensed, bathymetry-mapping methods as it can be applied to: (a) complex lake systems with sub-basins, (b) remote lakes with no in-situ records, and (c) flooded lakes. The proposed method can be easily implemented in other shallow lakes as it builds on publically accessible global data sets.
We investigate experimentally the short-range interactions occurring between two subaqueous barchans. The experiments were conducted in a water channel of transparent material where controlled grains were poured inside, and a camera placed on the top acquired images of the bedforms. We varied the grain types (diameter, density and roundness), pile masses, transverse distances, water flow rates and initial conditions. As a result, five different patterns were identified for both aligned and off-centered configurations and we propose interaction maps that depend basically on the ratio between the number of grains of each dune, Shields number and alignment of barchans. In addition, we show experimental indications that an ejected barchan has roughly the same mass of the impacting one in some cases, and that in wake-dominated processes the asymmetry of the downstream dune is large. The present results shed light on the size regulation of barchans found on Earth and other planets.
The Apollo 16 sample 66095, named „Rusty Rock”, is enriched in volatile and moderately volatile elements. The impact melt breccia is characterized by the abundant occurrence of Fe-rich sulfide and chloride alteration phases, including FeS, ZnS and FeCl2. These phases have previously been interpreted to be the result of fumarolic alteration of the breccia. Here we present the results of two different experimental approaches, which aim to constrain the temperature conditions and the process under which the „Rusty Rock” alteration formed. The first experimental set-up assumes that the metals Zn, Cu and Fe were introduced into the rock by a C-O-S-Cl gas phase, and that the Fe-rich sulfides and chlorides were deposited from this gas phase. This “gas deposition” experiment suggests that the alteration assemblage formed over the temperature range of 538-638±5 °C. The second experimental set-up simulates a scenario, where Fe metal particles in the lunar rock react with a Zn-C-O-S-Cl gas phase at six different temperatures between 396±5 °C and 1005±5 °C. This latter “metal reaction” experiment resulted in the formation of sulfide and chloride coatings on the Fe metal chips. The „Rusty Rock” alteration phases FeCl2 and (Zn,Fe)S were abundantly present in the coating of the Fe metal chip reacted at 580±5 °C. Both experiments lead to results which are in agreement, providing a temperature of 580 ± 50 °C for the fumarolic alteration on the Moon, as observed in the Apollo 16 „Rusty Rock”.
Tsunami deposits provide information for estimating the magnitude and flow conditions of paleotsunamis, and inverse models have potential for reconstructing hydraulic conditions of tsunamis from their deposits. The majority of the previously proposed models are based on oversimplified assumptions and possess some limitations. We present a new inverse model based on the FITTNUSS model, which incorporates nonuniform and unsteady transport of suspended sediment and turbulent mixing. The present model uses a deep neural network (DNN) for the inversion method. In this method, forward model calculations are repeated for random initial flow conditions (e.g., maximum inundation length, flow velocity, maximum flow depth and sediment concentration) to produce artificial training data sets of depositional characteristics such as thickness and grain size distribution. The DNN was then trained to establish a general inverse model based on artificial data sets derived from the forward model. Tests conducted using independent artificial data sets indicated that this trained DNN can reconstruct the original flow conditions from the characteristics of the deposits. Finally, the model was applied to a data set of 2011 Tohoku-Oki tsunami deposits. The predicted results of flow conditions were verified by the observational records at Sendai plain. Jackknife resampling was applied to estimate the precision of the result. The estimated results of the flow velocity and maximum flow depth were approximately 5.4\pm0.140 m/s and 4.11\pm0.152 m, respectively after the uncertainty analysis. The DNN shows promise for reconstruction of tsunami characteristics from its deposits, which would help in estimating the hydraulic conditions of paleotsunamis.
Exhumed high-pressure/low-temperature (HP/LT) metamorphic rocks provide insights into deep (~20-70 km) subduction interface dynamics. On Syros Island (Cyclades, Greece), the Cycladic Blueschist Unit (CBU) preserves blueschist-to-eclogite facies oceanic- and continental-affinity rocks that record the structural and thermal evolution associated with Eocene subduction. Despite decades of research, the pressure-temperature-deformation history (P-T-D), and timing of subduction and exhumation, are matters of ongoing discussion. Here we show that the CBU on Syros comprises three coherent tectonic slices, and each one underwent subduction, underplating, and syn-subduction return flow along similar P-T trajectories, but at progressively younger times. Subduction and return flow are distinguished by stretching lineations and ductile fold axis orientations: top-to-the-S (prograde-to-peak subduction), top-to-the-NE (blueschist facies exhumation), and then E-W coaxial stretching (greenschist facies exhumation). Amphibole chemical zonations record cooling during decompression, indicating return flow along the top of a cold subducting slab. New multi-mineral Rb-Sr isochrons and compiled metamorphic geochronology suggest that three nappes record distinct stages of peak subduction (53-52 Ma, ~50 Ma (?), and 47-45 Ma) that young with structural depth. Retrograde blueschist and greenschist facies fabrics span ~50-40 Ma and~43-20 Ma, respectively, and also young with structural depth. The datasets support a revised tectonic framework for the CBU, involving subduction of structurally distinct nappes and simultaneous return flow of previously accreted tectonic slices in the subduction channel shear zone. Distributed, ductile, dominantly coaxial return flow in an Eocene-Oligocene subduction channel proceeded at rates of ~1.5-5 mm/yr, and accommodated ~80% of the total exhumation of this HP/LT complex.
Supervised deep learning models have become a popular choice for seismic phase arrival detection. However, they don’t always perform well on out-of-distribution data and require large training sets to aid generalization and prevent overfitting. This can present issues when using these models in new monitoring settings. In this work, we develop a deep learning model for automating phase arrival detection at Nabro volcano using a limited amount of training data (2498 event waveforms recorded over 35 days) through a process known as transfer learning. We use the feature extraction layers of an existing, extensively-trained seismic phase picking model to form the base of a new all-convolutional model, which we call U-GPD. We demonstrate that transfer learning reduces overfitting and model error relative to training the same model from scratch, particularly for small training sets (e.g., 500 waveforms). The new U-GPD model achieves greater classification accuracy and smaller arrival time residuals than off-the-shelf applications of two existing, extensively-trained baseline models for a test set of 800 event and noise waveforms from Nabro volcano. When applied to 14 months of continuous Nabro data, the new U-GPD model detects 31,387 events with at least four P-wave arrivals and one S-wave arrival, which is more than the original base model (26,808 events) and our existing manual catalogue (2,926 events), with smaller location errors. The new model is also more efficient when applied as a sliding window, processing 14 months of data from 7 stations in less than 4 hours on a single GPU.
This article is composed of three independent commentaries about the state of ICON principles (Goldman et al., 2021) in Earth and Space Science Informatics (ESSI) and includes discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. Each commentary focuses on a different topic: (Section 2) Global collaboration, cyberinfrastructure, and data sharing; (Section 3) Machine learning and multiscale modeling; (Section 4) Remote sensing for advancing Earth system model development by integrating field and ancillary data. ESSI addresses data management practices, computation and analysis, and hardware and software infrastructure. Our role in ICON science therefore involves collaborative work to assess, design, implement, and promote practices and tools that enable effective data management, discovery, integration, and reuse for interdisciplinary work in Earth and space science disciplines. Networks of diverse people with expertise across Earth, space, and data science disciplines are essential for efficient and ethical exchanges of FAIR research products and practices. Our challenge is then to coordinate the development of standards, curation practices, and tools that enable integrating and reusing multiple data types, software, multi-scale models, and machine learning approaches across disciplines in a way that is as open and/or FAIR as ethically possible. This is a major endeavor that could greatly increase the pace and potential of interdisciplinary scientific discovery.
An accurate estimation of the shale permeability is essential to understand heterogeneous organic-rich shale reservoir rocks and predict the complexity of pore fluid transport in the rocks. However, predicting the matrix permeability by traditional models is still challenging because they require information often measured from core measurements. First, Kozeny’s equation (Kozeny, 1927) uses porosity and specific surface area of solid grains. However, it is difficult to characterize the specific surface area values or grain sizes from the logs. Second, Herron’s method (Herron, 1987) has been used for predicting permeability based on the mineral contents provided by well log data in conventional sandstone reservoirs. However, the predictive accuracy is low due to the different pore network structures of the shales. In this study, we estimate shale matrix permeability by a combined exploratory data analysis (EDA) and nonlinear regression estimation from the wireline logs. First, we conduct a bivariate correlation analysis for permeability and rock properties in core measurements. According to the correlation and Shapley value sensitivity test, we find that permeability change has a significant effect on the variation in porosity. Also, we investigate a nonlinear behavior between porosity and permeability. Second, we derive a nonlinear polylogarithmic estimation function of porosity to permeability, comparing it to the multivariate linear regression of porosity and clay volume fraction. As a result, a cubic logarithmic function of porosity significantly improves the fitting performance of the permeability values, better than the traditional methods. Moreover, we generate the permeability logs from the calibrated porosity logs, and they imply better shale permeability prediction as well. Since we can invert the porosity distribution from seismic data, this approach can provide a more accurate permeability estimation and reliable fluid flow modeling for shale and mudrock.
With plate tectonics operating on Earth, the preservation potential for mantle reservoirs from the Hadean Eon (>4.0 Ga) has been regarded as very small. The quest for such early remnants has been spurred by the observation that many Archean rocks exhibit excesses of 182W, the decay product of short-lived 182Hf. However, it remains speculative, if Archean 182W anomalies and also 182W deficits found in many young ocean island basalts (OIBs) mirror primordial Hadean mantle differentiation or just variable contributions from older meteorite building blocks delivered to the growing Earth. Here, we present a high-precision 182W isotope dataset for 3.22-3.55 Ga old rocks from the Kaapvaal Craton, southern Africa. In expanding previous work, our study reveals widespread 182W deficits in different rock units from the Kaapvaal Craton and also the very first discovery of a negative co-variation between short-lived 182W and long-lived 176Hf-143Nd-138Ce patterns, a trend of global significance. Amongst different models, these distinct patterns can be best explained by the presence of recycled mafic restites from Hadean protocrust in the ancient mantle beneath the Kaapvaal Craton. Further, the data provide unambiguous evidence for the operation of silicate differentiation processes on Earth during the lifetime of 182Hf, i.e., the first 60 million years after solar system formation. The striking isotopic similarity between recycled protocrust and the low 182W endmember of modern OIBs might also constitute the missing link bridging 182W isotope systematics in Archean and young mantle-derived rocks.
Free alternate bars are large-scale, downstream-migrating bedforms characterized by an alternating sequence of three-dimensional depositional fronts and scour holes that frequently develop in rivers as the result of an intrinsic instability of the erodible bed. Theoretical models based on two-dimensional shallow water and Exner equations have been successfully employed to capture the bar instability phenomenon, and to estimate bar properties such as height, wavelength and migration rate. However, the mathematical complexity of the problem hampered the understanding of the key physical mechanisms that sustain bar formation. To fill this gap, we considered a simplified version of the equations, based on neglecting the deformation of the free surface, which allows us to: (i) provide the first complete explanation of the bar formation mechanism as the result of a simple bond between variations of the water weight and flow acceleration; (ii) derive a simplified, physically based formula for predicting bar formation in a river reach, depending on channel width-to-depth ratio, Shields number and relative submergence. Comparison with an unprecedented large set of laboratory experiments reveals that our simplified formula appropriately predicts alternate bar formation in a wide range of conditions. Noteworthy, the hypothesis of negligible free surface effect also implies that bar formation is fully independent of the Froude number. We show that this intriguing property is intimately related to the three-dimensional nature of river bars, which allows for a gentle lateral deviation of the flow without significant deformation of the water surface.