In this work, it is suggested numerically that it is possible to direct shear stimulation treatments in critically-stressed reservoirs. This would aid in the creation of Enhanced Geothermal Systems by promoting hydraulic connectivity in doublet-well systems. In this case, the stimulation treatment is directed using only the poroelastic stress changes associated with a previous stimulation treatment to precondition the stress field. This methodology is shown for reverse, strike-slip, and normal faulting stress regimes.

In previous work (Hairston et al., GRL doi 10.1029/2018GL077381, 2018) we showed the topside F-layer (~850 km) electron temperatures measured by two DMSP spacecraft as they flew through the Moon’s shadow during the 21 August 2017 eclipse exhibited a series of non-uniform, banded decreases rather than a broad and smooth temperature decrease. We found that making a “mask” of the shadow of the Moon eclipsing the existing active regions on the sun’s surface created a pattern on the ionosphere showing where the gradient of the EUV from the active regions was greatest. The complex pattern of these areas from the mask at the F-peak altitude at 300 km corresponded to the areas in the topside F-layer where the DMSP observed the bands of cooled electrons. We have expanded this work to examine about a dozen other eclipses including the most recent 21 June 2020 eclipse. We repeatedly observed the same banded pattern in the electron temperatures in almost all the DMSP eclipse passes, thus demonstrating this is a repeatable phenomenon. Since the DMSP series of spacecraft form a constellation of four operational satellites with the same plasma instrument package making multiple measurements of the shadow at different local times, and sometimes within 10-15 minutes of each other, we can use these observations to map the shape and evolution of these cooling band patterns as the eclipse’s shadow passes over the Earth’s ionosphere. Here we will present our first detailed analysis of the two eclipses that occurred on 20-21 May 2012 and 2 July 2019. Both these eclipses have passes through the duskside by two spacecraft within a few minutes of each other, thus allowing us to examine the evolution of the pattern. We are using these events to determine the empirical patterns seen in the electron temperature decreases during eclipses and to explore the mechanism causing the cooling of the plasma and how it is transported from the F-peak region to the topside ionosphere.

We have equipped the unstructured-mesh global sea-ice and ocean model FESOM2 with a set of physical parameterizations derived from the single-column sea-ice model Icepack. The update has substantially broadened the range of physical processes that can be represented by the model. The new features are directly implemented on the unstructured FESOM2 mesh, and thereby benefit from the flexibility that comes with it in terms of spatial resolution. A subset of the parameter space of three model configurations, with increasing complexity, has been calibrated with an iterative Green’s function optimization method to test fairly the impact of the model update on the sea-ice representation. Furthermore, to explore the sensitivity of the results to different atmospheric forcings, each model configuration was calibrated separately for the NCEP-CFSR/CFSv2 and ERA5 forcings. The results suggest that a complex model formulation leads to a better agreement between modeled and the observed sea-ice concentration and snow thickness, while differences are smaller for sea-ice thickness and drift speed. However, the choice of the atmospheric forcing also impacts the agreement of FESOM2 simulations and observations, with NCEP-CFSR/CFSv2 being particularly beneficial for the simulated sea-ice concentration and ERA5 for sea-ice drift speed. In this respect, our results indicate that the parameter calibration can better compensate for differences among atmospheric forcings in a simpler model (i.e. sea-ice has no heat capacity) than in more energy consistent formulations with a prognostic ice thickness distribution.

We investigate the timing and relative influence of VLF in the chorus frequency range observed by the DEMETER spacecraft and ULF wave activity from ground stations on daily changes in electron flux (0.23 to over 2.9 MeV) observed by the HEO-3 spacecraft. At each L shell, we use multiple regression to investigate the effects of each wave type and each daily lag independent of the others. We find that reduction and enhancement of electrons occur at different time scales. Chorus power spectral density and ULF wave power are associated with immediate electron decreases on the same day but with flux enhancement 1-2 days later. ULF is nearly always more influential than chorus on both increases and decreases of flux, although chorus is often a significant factor. There was virtually no difference in correlations of ULF Pc3, Pc4, or Pc5 with electron flux. A synergistic interaction between chorus and ULF waves means that enhancement is most effective when both waves are present, pointing to a two-step process where local acceleration by chorus waves first energizes electrons which are then brought to even higher energies by inward radial diffusion due to ULF waves. However, decreases in flux due to these waves act additively. Chorus and ULF waves combined are most effective at describing changes in electron flux at >1.5 MeV. At lower L (2-3), correlations between ULF and VLF (likely hiss) with electron flux were low. The most successful models, over L=4-6, explained up to 47.1% of the variation in the data.

Soil moisture is an essential measurement to manage water and improve crop production. However, agricultural research in the Yaqui Valley (in northwestern Mexico) with extensive wheat fields (Triticum sp.) have focused on other monitoring schemes (e.g. remote sensing) with less attention to soil moisture. Most of this cultivated soil contains up to ~ 50% clay, which results in changes to soil properties from wet to dry conditions and challenges in the implementation of in-situ measurements of soil moisture. For this research, we selected a 1-ha wheat field in the Yaqui Valley representative of a typical flood irrigation system. We measured meteorological variables (ClimaVUE™50), and soil moisture for the winter crop-cycle from December 2019 to Abril 2020. Volumetric water content (VWC) was recorded from 5 to 50 cm using two TDR (SoilVUE™10), one located in the bottom of the furrow under bare conditions, and the other on the top under the vegetated condition for further integration and comparison. A Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensor (CRNS) was located alongside the meteorological sensor. The universal calibration equation was used to estimate VWC based on neutron counts. The comparison from the CRNS and the integrated TDR (5 to 50 cm) resulted in an RMSE of 0.02 m3m-3 and an r2 = 0.73. While both technologies respond to water inputs, the CRNS is a more reliable measurement during the dry-down periods when the high-clay soil cracks to the extent of 40 cm where soil is exposed to air. During this driest period, recorded VWC at 50 cm was, on average, 0.25 m3 m-3, while measurements with the CRNS was on average, 0.16 m3 m-3. Interestingly, both sensors peaked at 0.56 m3 m-3 during the flood irrigation event.

While Artistic techniques may help scientists visualize data and communicate results to their colleagues, I believe the Arts can play a more significant role in communicating scientific information to the general public. Modes of presentation of information determine the impact of reception. Data on a page or screen is received cerebrally. Psychologists posit that concepts received emotionally can have a more lasting, deeper impact on an audience. That is what the arts (film, dance, drama, painting) can achieve. My paper will demonstrate through a particular project that concept. It will involve the presentation of a recent 56 foot long piece I’ve completed called “THE WORLD MAP SERIES” : https://www.dianeburko.com/new-page-1m which speaks to the impact of Climate Change on glaciers and coral reefs. This 10-part series represents my bearing witness to melting ice and coral bleaching, as well as exchanges with glaciologists and marine biologists over the past few years. It will also serve as an example of the artistic process.

In a previous study, a new snapshot modeling concept for the archeomagnetic field was introduced (Mauerberger et al. 2020). By assuming a Gaussian process for the geomagnetic potential, a correlation based algorithm was presented, which incorporates a closed form spatial correlation function. This work extends the suggested modeling strategy to the temporal domain. A space-time correlation kernel is constructed from the tensor product of the closed form spatial correlation kernel with a squared exponential kernel in time. Dating uncertainties are incorporated into the modeling concept using a noisy input Gaussian process. All but one modeling hyperparameters are marginalized, to reduce their influence on the outcome and to translate their variability to the posterior variance. The resulting distribution incorporates uncertainties related to dating, measurement and modeling process. Results from application to archeomagnetic data show less variation in the dipole than comparable models, but are in general agreement with previous findings.

Studying the properties of the liquid phase of minerals at high pressure is important to understand the structure and evolution of deep magma oceans, as well as guiding high pressure experiments that reach the conditions in the interiors of rocky planets. We use density functional theory molecular dynamics (DFT-MD) and path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) simulations to generate a consistent equation of state (EOS) for liquid MgSiO3 that spans across a wide range of temperatures and pressures. We study its thermodynamic properties, such as the heat capacity, and characterize the atomic structure of the liquid. From our simulations, we are able to determine the onset of ionization of the inner electronic shells and relate the thermodynamic properties to the electronic structure. Finally, in order to guide future ramp and shock compression experiments, we derive isentropic temperature-pressure profiles and calculate the shock Hugoniot curve, which is in good agreement with existing experimental data.

There are growing evidences that the warming marginal seas impact the torrential rainfall events in many parts of the world. The sea surface temperature (SST) in the East Asian marginal seas (EAMS) exhibits rapid rise during the last decades compared to the global mean, but its impact is still a matter of debate. Here we assess the impact of the recent warming trend of the EAMSs on the torrential rainfall event that caused devastating flooding and landslides in Kyushu Island located in the western part of Japan in July 2017, using a high-resolution cloud permitting model. The warming trend of EAMS with atmospheric warming since 1980s increases the simulated 12-hr precipitation to 6.8%, corresponding to approximately 10% increase per 1 K of SST rise, consistent with the previous data analysis study. Slight increase in heat and moisture supplies due to the warming EAMS has impacted a conditionally unstable condition of air masses flowing into an area of the precipitation, leading to more vigorous convective systems. Moisture budget analysis indicates that the changes in the amount of precipitation is not responsible for the availability of precipitable water but the intensification of the convective system. Since the change in precipitation amount exhibits high sensitivity to the SST trends, use of multiple SST datasets is desirable to provide a more reliable estimate and its uncertainty.

The clear-sky and all-sky global mean energy flow system of the Earth as the solution of four radiative transfer constraint equations were presented in Zagoni (CERES STM 2020). These equations have their theoretical origin in the concept of radiative equilibrium for stratified atmospheres (Schwarzschild 1906, Eq. 11; Milne 1930, Eq. 93-95; Goody 1964, Chamberlain 1978, Eq. 1.2.29-1.2.30; Eq. 2.115; Goody and Yung 1989, Eq. 2.146 and Eq. 9.5; Houghton 2002, Eq. 2.13; Andrews 2010, Eq. 3.50-3.51; Pierrehumbert 2010, Eq. 4.44-4.45, etc.). We showed that each of the equations is justified by 19 years of CERES data within ±3 Wm-2 and the all-sky equations by the IPCC-AR5 (2013) Fig. 2.11 global energy budget estimate within ±2 Wm-2. The individual flux components, both for clear-sky and all-sky are valid within ± 1 Wm-2 at the TOA and within ± 4 Wm-2 at the surface. A fifth equation was introduced in Zagoni (EGU 2020) showing the place of a non-observable flux component (atmospheric window radiation) in the theoretical system; and a sixth equation allowed to extend the arithmetic structure to total solar irradiance. The set of these equations has a solution for LWCRE = 1 as unit flux, and the whole system of the global mean atmospheric energy flows can be described by small integers, in their own units, separately for the clear-sky, the cloudy sky and (as their weighted sum) for the all-sky case. OLR(all) = 9, OLR(clear) = 10, ULW = 15, G(all) = 6, G(clear) = 5 units = 133.40 Wm-2 with TSI = 51 units = 1360.68 Wm-2. Here we introduce the cloudy versions of the examined classic radiative transfer constraint equations and present the all-sky global mean energy budget as the weighted sum of the clear-sky and cloudy-sky energy flow system. “Clouds” are regarded as a single IR-opaque layer, represented by an effective cloud area fraction. Essential characteristics of the climate (like the clear-cloudy energy exchange; the surface, TOA, in-atmosphere and net CREs; and the greenhouse effect) are explained as the cooperation of the clear-sky and cloudy-sky geometric arrangements expressed in the transfer equations. This way, the theoretical description of the Earth’s global mean energy budget is complete.

Since the 1980s, the distributed optical fiber temperature measurement technology has gradually carried out to be the long-distance, high-precision and long-time temperature measurement, and is more and more used in many fields such as fire warning, leakage monitoring, etc. Since the 21st century, scholars in the field of hydrogeology have used this technology to understand the heat transfer in groundwater, surface water and other media. In this study, the distributed optical fiber temperature measurement technology was used to measure the vertical temperature of groundwater in the downstream of Huangbizhuang Reservoir in North China Plain for 35 sites, and groundwater table has been measured too. On the base of the temperature data, the plane and vertical distribution of the groundwater temperature are obtained. The plane distribution of the groundwater temperature shows that the reservoir water of Huangbizhuang Reservoir recharges the groundwater in the downstream plain area through the seepage at the bottom of the auxiliary dam, and the isotherm is roughly parallel to the groundwater contour, which shows that the conclusion of this technology is reliable. And according to the vertical temperature distribution, the main recharge depth is about 23 and 28 m underground. And the points of seepage are indicated by temperature change inside the dam and the drainage ditch.

The use of an objective seasonal forecast procedure, defined as a traceable, reproducible, and well-documented set of steps that allows the quantification of forecast quality, are preferred and recommended by the World Meteorological Organization in their recent seasonal forecast guidance. However, National Meteorological Services (NMS) in African countries have been issuing seasonal rainfall forecasts using a subjective consensus process, which is based on meteorologists’ experiences using Global Producing Center’s (GPCs) outputs and other available information. A systematic general objective approach named as NextGen (Next Generation) forecasting system is being developed for some East African countries as part of implementing or strengthening ENACTS (Enhancing National Climate Services; https://iri.columbia.edu/resources/enacts/) initiative as well implementing Columbia University’s World Project “Adapting Agriculture to Climate Today, for Tomorrow” (ACToday; https://iri.columbia.edu/actoday/) project. This new forecast system is based on a calibrated multi-model ensemble (CMME) process using state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCM) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble project. A canonical-correlation-analysis-based regression is used to calibrate the raw outputs from the GCMs; then the individually-calibrated GCMs are combined with equal weight to make a final CMME prediction. In addition to traditional tercile probability forecasts, NextGen also provides a more flexible format that enables users to extract information for those parts of the forecast distribution of the greatest interest to them in the decision-making process. Therefore, NextGen enables NMS to generate and deliver targeted climate information products relevant to the needs of decision-makers at multiple levels. The NextGen forecast system has so far been implemented in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Zambia, Malawi and Tanzania, and planned to be implemented in more countries in the near future. In this study, we describe the co-design, co-development, and skill assessment of this NextGen system.

In this study, we discuss a new mountain peak observatory in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Using coordinated scan patterns, a Doppler lidar and cloud radar were employed to study seedable convective clouds, and identify pre-convection initiation (CI) clear-air signatures. The instruments were employed for approximately two years in an extreme environment with a high vantage point for observing valley wind flows and convective cells. The instruments were configured to run synchronized polar (PPI) scans at 0°, 5°, and 45° elevation angles and vertical cross-section (RHI) scans at 0°, 30°, 60, 90°, 120°, and 150° azimuth angles. Using this output imagery, along with local C-band radar and satellite data, we were able to identify and analyze several convective cases. To illustrate our results, we selected two cases in unstable conditions - the 5 and 6 September 2018. In both cases, we observed areas of convergence/divergence, particularly associated with wind flow around a peak 2 km to the south-west. The extension of these deformations were visible in the atmosphere as high as 3 km above sea level. Subsequently, we observed convective cells developing in the same directions – apparently connected with these phenomena. The cloud radar images provided detailed observations of cloud structure, evolution, and precipitation. In both convective cases, pre-convective signatures were apparent before CI, in the form of convergence, wind shear structures, and updrafts. These results demonstrate the value of synergetic observations for understanding convection initiation, improvement of forecast models, and cloud seeding guidance.

Pore connectivity, a topological characteristic of pore structure, is oftentimes more important than the geometrical aspects in controlling fluid flow and mass transport in porous natural rocks as well as their associated utilities in energy and environmental stewardship. A different extent of pore connectivity can be reflected in the proportion of isolated pore space not connected to the surface of natural rocks. This work presents the multi-approach and multi-scale laboratory studies to investigating the proportion of isolated pore space of, and its resultant anomalous fluid flow and radionuclide movement in, generic geological barrier materials (clay sediment, crystalline rock, salt rock, shale, tuff). The samples include clay sediments of Wakkanai formation at Horonobe underground research center in Hokkaido of Japan, Opalinus clay of Mt. Terri Underground Research Laboratory as well as granodiorite from the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland, salt rock from Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico, various shales (Barnett, Eagle Ford and Wolfcamp from Texas), and welded tuff in Yucca Mountain in Nevada. Working with sample sizes from <75 μm to several centimeters, the experimental approaches include the independent quantification of both (1) surface-accessible pore space with various probing fluids (e.g., helium in expansion, water in vacuum saturation and nuclear magnetic resonance, mercury in intrusion porosimetry, nitrogen in gas physisorption, and Wood’s metal in high-pressure impregnation and micron-scale tracer mapping using laser ablation-ICP-MS); and (2) total (both connected and isolated) porosity by small angle X-ray scattering. In summary, our evolving complementary approaches provide a rich toolbox for tackling the pore structure characteristics in geological barrier materials, and associated fluid flow & radionuclide transport, implicated in their long-term performance in natural and engineered systems of a nuclear waste repository.

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is a widely used single-number metric used to compare the climate change effects of various greenhouse gases. Although GWP has an established role in international climate agreements, it is unphysical, unintuitive, arbitrary, ignores the time dependence of emission sources, and is in some cases misleading. The same doubts have been expressed by the convening lead author of the relevant chapter in the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in which GWP was introduced. GWP and the related CO2-equivalent methodology have no place in describing the effects of climate change mitigation strategies beyond a 20 year horizon. An important element of sound policy making is the quantitative analysis of policy interventions. This work argues for the broader use of temperature change trajectories in educating policymakers and the public about greenhouse gas control. Modeling tools include general circulation models, related reduced complexity models, and simpler models of global mean temperature change. Examples are presented illustrating the misleading nature of GWP and the CO2-equivalent methodology. These include the greenhouse gas impacts of (1) single year and multiyear emissions of methane, (2) natural gas and coal use in the electric power sector, (3) pipeline and LNG transport of natural gas, (4) natural gas flaring, and (5) livestock herd reduction. Responding to climate change is likely to require global investments measured in trillions of dollars. Clear and accurate communication among and between scientists, policy makers. and the general public is essential. GWP is a crude, inaccurate tool that and the general public is essential. GWP is a crude, inaccurate tool that played a constructive role in the formulation of international agreements. Using better modeling tools can help make climate policy discussions more scientifically rigorous while demystifying the criteria upon which policy choices are made.

To support the development of the Global Forecast System (GFS) physics suite and identify opportunities for improving the model physics in the UFS, the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) conducted an array of analyses for evaluating the operational GFSv15 forecasts and the experimental forecasts using the GFSv16beta physics suite distributed with the UFS Medium-Range Weather Application v1.0 public release. Five-day GFSv16beta forecasts for one boreal winter season were generated using the operational GFS analyses as initial conditions. The evaluation metrics included tools from Model Evaluation Tools (MET) and in-house process-oriented diagnostics. The evaluations focused on the perpetuating GFS forecast errors pertaining to the planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface, cumulus, radiation, and cloud processes. The runs using GFSv16beta outperformed the operational GFSv15 with respect to the root-mean-square errors of large-scale environmental variables and the anomaly correlation coefficient for 500 hPa geopotential height. Nevertheless, larger biases associated with key physical processes were identified in the GFSv16beta forecasts. For example, the global precipitation forecast skill degrades and a dry bias remains in the tropics, suggesting a persistent problem in the cumulus scheme. The near-surface and boundary-layer cold biases are larger over most continents and polar regions, which is partly related to the systematic negative temperature errors in the GFS analysis. The overestimated near-surface wind speed particularly at night in the northeastern U.S. implies that the surface drag may be underrepresented. Excessive short-wave radiation reaching the ground in the high-latitudes of the summer hemisphere appears to be related to low cloud liquid and ice water path. These and other results will be described in this presentation.

A gusty wind by typhoons is one of the major natural hazards and has been the most threatening windstorm in urban districts. In recent year some major cities in Japan have experienced extreme winds during typhoon landfalls. For example, Typhoon Jebi (2018) caused extreme wind gusts in Osaka and Kyoto, while Typhoon Faxai (2019) and Hagibis (2019) produced high winds in Tokyo and neighboring cities. Urban roughness obstacles exert significant influences on the magnitude of wind gustiness. With the growing urbanization globally, the quantification of turbulent winds in densely built, urban districts is important to the assessment and prediction of risks of wind damages and the understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms. Influences of densely built urban environments on the occurrence of wind gusts in urban districts during the typhoon landfalls are studied by merging mesoscale meteorological and building-resolving large-eddy simulations (LES), which allows an explicit representation of the complicated building structures while retaining the strong mesoscale perturbations from the typhoon. The actual building data of Osaka, Kyoto, and Tokyo are used in the building-resolving LES computational domains. With the successful reproduction of the track and intensity of the typhoon in meteorological simulations, the simulated winds at the simulated boundary-layer top are used to quantify the wind gusts in the urban district. The maximum wind gust in the analysis area of Osaka during the landfall of Typhoon Jebi is found to exceed 60 m/s, which is comparable to the wind speed at the height of about 300 m. Such wind gusts are generated by the instantaneous downward momentum transfer in areas, where buildings of great height variability are clustered. The instantaneous wind gusts are found to be the strongest for moderate building packing density. The results suggest that the risks of wind damages are mostly likely to be maximized in urban districts of high building-height variability and moderate packing density.

Lunar mare basalts are the products of their corresponding parent magma compositions, sourced from the lunar upper mantle. The lunar mantle has been repeatedly modeled through numeric simulations to reflect lunar magma ocean (LMO) crystallization, resulting in an early-stage anorthositic crust and immediately underlying, late-stage, KREEP-rich and ilmenite-rich layer. This negatively buoyant layer is expected to have induced mixing with the underlying mantle, potentially to the core-mantle boundary. The lunar mare basalts, in this context, reflect mantle sources that are variably mixed between pristine mantle compositions and the dense ilmenite-rich layer. In order to constrain the geometry of lunar mantle heterogeneity, we simultaneously examined multiple mare basalt characteristics to extract significant multivariate patterns that might lend insight into the nature of this mixing-induced heterogeneity. Using two fundamental machine learning approaches and a newly compiled database of Apollo basalt characteristics (ApolloBasaltDB), we conducted a preliminary investigation, holding the assumptions that 1) mare basalts are assumed to retain the majority of their original characteristics at the time of extrusion: texture, isotopic age, major element composition, mineral mode, and geographic occurrence; 2) negligible basalt alteration occurred due to the lack of an atmosphere; and 3) impact gardening did not have significant bearing on final geographic location of basalt samples based on our nearside spatial partitions. The results of cluster and principal component analyses over changing spatial basalt groupings suggest that lunar nearside changes in major element concentrations and mineral modes vary spatially. Al2O3 concentrations increase in diversity within the Procellarum KREEP Terrane (PKT) compared to older regions immediately exterior to the eastern PKT, while a general nearside trend appears to suggest that ilmenite (TiO2) diversity comes at the expense of plagioclase (Al2O3) diversity. Cluster analysis suggests PKT perimeter rifting may have tapped into increasingly Ti-rich sources as rifting proceeded SE to NW. By establishing such trends over varying spatial scales through multivariate processing, the changing strengths of these surface correlative patterns may indicate the changing conditions (including temporal) of the immediately underlying mantle at the time of extrusion.